Zheng Mian staged a roller coaster, spot delays to be seen

Last week (November 7-11), the price of seed cotton was stable, the market price of low-quality frosted flowers was slightly lower, the price of lint sales in Xinjiang was stable, and the price of inland warehouses rose by 100-200 yuan/ton due to rising freight costs, and the transaction volume was slow. As a result, the number of exports to Xinjiang dropped significantly by 60% year-on-year. However, due to the adjustment of sales strategy of the XPCC, the effect was obvious. Zheng Cotton Futures was played by funds and staged a roller coaster market. The spot response was delayed. It remains to be seen how the result will be. The US market is affected, but the supervision is strict and relatively stable. The surge in cotton prices last Thursday and Friday stimulated cotton yarn sales. The national cotton price B index was 15,516 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 245 yuan/ton, compared with the Zheng Cotton Futures CF1701 contract, from a premium of 41 yuan/ton to a discount of 754 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 795 yuan/ton, and a rare set of spots appeared. Protection and arbitrage opportunities.　　 Futures. After the listing of new cotton, the futures has been at a discount relative to the spot price. The price of new cotton is high and sales are slow. Zheng cotton continues to consolidate, and a certain number of hedging orders have been accumulated in the market. Recently, due to the increase in freight, the new cotton has been pushed up even more. The sales cost of cotton, the inventory of old cotton in spinning mills is gradually decreasing, the demand for replenishment is gradually increasing, and the general increase in bulk commodities is huge. The fundamental and technical aspects of cotton have a strong desire to do more. The bulls can take advantage of the trend and get bigger at a lower cost. Zheng Mian’s main force CF1701 closed at 16,270 yuan/ton last Friday, up 1040 yuan/ton, and last Friday’s night trading closed the daily limit at 17005 yuan/ton, with 2,599,534 lots traded, an increase of 43.3%, and holdings of 388,788 Hand, an increase of 11.3%, over-the-counter funds entered the market, prices rose sharply, trading was active, and positions increased. As of the close of November 11, the top 20 positions held, 57,141 hands, a sharp increase of 25,992 hands over the previous week, short positions increased rapidly, implying a risk of rapid decline. Among the holding positions, the buy position is 602 hands, 7 hands are reduced, the sell hedging is 13,780 hands, the increase is 8645 hands, the buy orders are reduced, and the sell orders increase significantly, indicating that the market outlook is not optimistic. As of November 11, there are 656 registered warehouse receipts, an increase of 47 in the week. , 484 effective forecasts, an increase of 67 weekly, a substantial increase in futures premiums is conducive to the new cotton registered warehouse receipts, 115 new cotton warehouse receipts, an increase of 71 weekly, the new warehouse receipts, mainly Xinjiang cotton, Xinjiang cotton warehouse receipt 68 Zhang, an increase of 64 per week. The rapid rise of futures last Thursday and Friday has created rare hedging and arbitrage opportunities for spot companies. It is estimated that the number of warehouse receipts will increase significantly this week. Last Friday night trading from the daily limit to the lower limit, a roller coaster market shocked most participants and suffered heavy losses. CF1701 closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, returning to the previous consolidation range, but the settlement price was 16065 yuan/ton. The probability of returning to the previous period after the wave inertially drops is relatively high. U.S. market: Last Friday, under the influence of Zheng Mian, there was an upward rush, but due to lack of preparation and lack of support from the fundamentals, it returned to the box at the close, and the probability of consolidation in the later period was relatively high.　　In terms of spot. The amount of resources left in the reserve cotton market has decreased, and prices have stabilized. Some hedging resources are rising in futures and adjusted with the price of the disk. The quotations in New Cotton Xinjiang are relatively stable. After the big rise in futures last Thursday and Friday, some companies’ quotations have been raised. The quotation of Kujian cotton in the mainland has increased by about 200 yuan/ton due to the increase in freight. The price has been adjusted upwards, and the transaction is relatively stable, with a slow increase trend. The quotation of imported cotton is relatively stable, and the spot price of customs clearance US cotton and Australian cotton is better than that of Xinjiang cotton. Futures rose sharply on Thursday and Friday, and the night market on Friday pulled back sharply. In this wave of market, many spot companies participated in hedging and arbitrage, and made great profits. The cost of holding goods dropped sharply. , The price has an impact, it is worthy of attention. The fall in the prices of viscose and meal products has an impact on the price of cottonseed and the cost of lint. According to statistics, the progress of Xinjiang cotton’s warehousing is the same as last year, and the progress of exporting cotton has dropped sharply, mainly due to the one-month delay in the rotation. However, it is worth noting that after the XPCC’s sales strategy adjusted this year, the effect is obvious and the progress has been accelerated. Significantly slower than last year.　　 New cotton acquisition. According to statistics, the national acquisition progress reached about 80%, Xinjiang processed 2.26 million tons, the national public inspection volume exceeded 2 million tons, the public inspection volume was 1.88 million tons, Xinjiang 1.85 million tons, and the mainland less than 30,000 tons.　　Operation suggestions. Under the situation of difficult spot sales, the high premium cotton can be moved to the mainland delivery warehouse to choose warehouse receipts or spot sales. The recent range of the disk is more likely to fluctuate. Exit the wait-and-see or band-based fast-in and fast-out operations. Article keywords: 　Zheng cottonseed cotton lint