Zheng Mian's rebound is still facing greater pressure

At the end of February, under the pressure of multiple factors such as the decline in domestic and foreign stock markets and the slow progress of cotton textile enterprises' resumption of production and production, the main contract price hit a record low of 12,105 yuan/ton since late May 2016. Despite the strong growth in spot cotton spot price transactions in March, the restart of Xinjiang cotton rotation, and the high probability of continued interest rate cuts by the domestic central bank in March, Zheng Mian rebounded sharply. However, judging from the strength of the rebound, some institutions and cotton-related enterprises It is believed that Zheng Mian's rise needs time to exchange space, and the conditions for a sharp rebound or even a reversal are immature.　　 Why is Zheng Mian's short-term rebound weak? The author summarizes the following points: 　　 First, the spread of the new crown epidemic from South Korea and Japan to the Middle East, Europe, and the United States has increased its impact on the global economy, and my country’s textile and clothing exports may experience a 'downturn in spring'. According to the survey, the recent epidemic in my country has reached an inflection point, and the resumption rate of large and medium-sized textile companies has increased rapidly, but the shortage of orders has become the biggest obstacle to the recovery of the cotton, cotton yarn, and grey cloth markets (especially export orders from Europe and the United States are not performing well).　　 Second, due to domestic epidemic prevention and control, poor logistics, and restrictions on personnel movement, cotton purchases were lower than expected. As of early March, although large textile companies have a relatively high rate of resumption of work, the production capacity recovery is only 50-60%, while the resumption rate of small textile and clothing companies is still less than 30%, and the rate of resumption of production is lower. Therefore, the plan for replenishment of raw materials such as cotton continues Postpone.　　 Third, the domestic cotton supply is sufficient in 2019/20. According to statistics from the Cotton Logistics Branch of the China Cotton Association, as of the end of January, the total cotton turnover inventory in the country was about 4,486,900 tons (excluding reserves and warehouse receipts), which was higher than 123,400 tons in the same period last year. Among them, the turnover inventory of commodity cotton in 43 warehouses in Xinjiang was 385.51 10,000 tons, only lower than 81,000 tons in the same period last year. Taking into account the semi-stagnation state of cotton in and out of Xinjiang in February, transaction, transportation, etc., it is estimated that as of the end of February, the country's commodity cotton turnover inventory is not less than 4.2 million tons. Coupled with the port bonded + non-bonded non-bonded cotton of 580,000-600,000 tons (due to estimates, there may be discrepancies), the supply of cotton from March to August is relatively sufficient.　　Fourth, as the CF2005 contract rebounded to more than 12,500 yuan/ton, the Zheng cotton warehouse receipt + effective forecast remained high, which was equivalent to 1.672 million tons of cotton. As Zheng Mian rebounded, processing companies and traders were less enthusiastic about trading and storage, and hedging and risk aversion sentiment continued to heat up. Article Keywords: 　Cotton