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Zheng cotton rebound still faces greater pressure Textile information - Textile net - Textile integrated service provider
The end of February, zheng cotton stocks fell and cotton textile enterprises both at home and abroad to return to work and production progress is still slow pushed by many factors such as the main contract price set in 2016 was the lowest since late May 12105 yuan/ton. Although in March cotton spot spot price clinch a deal the strong growth, XinJiangMian wheel into the restart and march domestic central Banks continue to cut interest rates and other large probability of good, zheng cotton showed a sharp rebound, but look from the disk rebound, some institutions, the cotton enterprises think zheng cotton rose still need time for space, rebounded sharply and even reverse conditions are not mature at present. Why zheng cotton short-term rebound fatigue? The author summarized as follows: one is the new crown outbreaks from Japan and South Korea to the Middle East, Europe, the United States to increase the impact of the global economy, China's textile and clothing export or will suffer 'pollen. From the point of survey, recent outbreak is a turning point in our country, large and medium-sized FangQi resume work rate increased rapidly, but the shortage of orders as cotton, cotton yarn, grey cloth market the biggest obstacle to recovery, Especially for Europe and the United States export orders performance) 。 The second is the domestic unsmoothness of the epidemic prevention and control, logistics, personnel flow limit, cotton purchase below expectations. As of early march, although large textile enterprises resume work rate is higher, but only 50 - capacity to recover 60%, while XiaoFang suit the work rate is less than 30% of the enterprise, and production rate is lower, so the cotton and other raw materials inventory plans to continue. 3 it is 2019/20 big supply of domestic cotton. According to China association of cotton cotton logistics branch, as of the end of January, the national cotton inventory amount of about 448. 690000 tons ( Excluding reserves, zheng warehouse receipt) 12, higher than the same period last year. Commodity cotton 340000 tons, of which 43 in xinjiang warehouse inventory for 385. 8, 510000 tons, just below the same period last year. 10000 tons. Considering for ins and outs of cotton in xinjiang, clinch a deal in February, transportation and so on is stagnant, so estimate by the end of February commodity cotton not less than 4. 2 million tons of inventory. Plus + outside the bonded port bonded 58 - cotton 600000 tons ( Because of the estimate, or from) , 3 - In August the cotton supply is adequate. Four is as CF2005 contract rebound to more than 12500 yuan/ton, zheng cotton warehouse receipt + effective forecast still remain high, total 167 or cotton. 20000 tons. With zheng cotton rebound, processing enterprises, traders in store reduced activity, hedge risk aversion continues to heat up.