Traders' speculative demand resumed in April, cotton yarn imports fell by 1/3

The cotton yarn market has further improved this week. As the foreign epidemic has eased, commercial activities have resumed one after another, and some of the export orders that were previously suspended have also been notified to continue. As of May 28, the average domestic C32S price closed at 18715 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the decline narrowed.　　 Cotton continued to fluctuate this week. As of today, CC3128B closed at 11,807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the same period last week. It is understood that since the end of May, the financial pressure of departmental cotton traders and ginners has risen. In addition, Zheng Mian has been hovering at 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton. The confidence of bulls and speculators has been shaken. They are in order to speed up shipments. , Withdrawal of funds have lowered the basis, seize every opportunity to destock.　　 As for textile companies, as of the 28th, China's yarn inventory index closed at 29.7 days, and the start-up load closed at 50.9%. The demand side is largely manifested as speculative demand, with textile companies making very few shots, and most traders are purchasing. The reasons for the analysis are roughly as follows: 1. The current cotton yarn price is at a low level, and it is natural to buy bottoms; 2. It is expected that after the resumption of work in Europe and the United States and the gradual recovery of Chinese demand, downstream orders will increase; 3. The intention is to amortize the cost of the deep loss of resources in the early period; 4. Some traders After dumping the goods indiscriminately, there is not much inventory and just need to replenish the inventory.　　 From the downstream demand side of the industrial chain, the current situation in the grey fabric market is still more worrying. As of the 28th, the start-up load index of China's grey fabrics closed at 49.6%, and the inventory closed at 31.2 days. Start-ups declined and inventory increased. From a regional perspective, except for Nantong and Lanxi, the start-up rate in other regions is very low, and the main consideration is to maintain workers. Grey cloth stocks are still large, and some are still increasing. Due to seasonal factors, the goods produced by weavers and traders in the early stage are difficult to digest this year, so this part of their inventory is still in their hands, and due to the decline in prices, this part is currently in deep loss, and some factories and traders are unwilling Cutting meat results in a loss of cash flow, which in turn increases other inventories.　　 This week, the imported yarn continued to drop. After the price difference between the inner and outer yarns was upside down, the price difference further increased. As of May 28, the spot price of FCY Index C32S discounted to RMB closed at RMB 18,522/ton, a month-on-month drop of RMB 23/ton. With the recovery of domestic textile and apparel production in India, the price of Indian cotton yarn has gradually stabilized. In the past week, the domestic and export prices of Pakistani cotton yarn continued to fall, downstream processing companies were slow to return to work, and demand remained very weak, which could not support prices.　　 According to customs statistics, my country imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn in April 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 26.32%. Since 2019/20 (2019.9-2020.4), my country has imported 1.24 million tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 4.62%. It can be seen that the epidemic and de-globalization have had a very large impact on my country's textile industry. But fortunately, in May, the market sentiment of the entire cotton spinning industry chain gradually improved, and the panic about the global new crown epidemic also began to fade. Whether cotton, textile companies or weaving mills judged that the 'darkest moment' of the entire industry has passed, the reasons are as follows: 　　一, The global epidemic is being effectively controlled, and a full restart of the global economy is just around the corner. Since mid-May, foreign trade orders have returned to about 50% of the normal level, especially orders from Japan and South Korea; a shopping boom has appeared in many countries such as Italy, Spain, and retaliatory consumption of textiles, clothing, etc. has arrived. With the renewed fighting in football matches including Bundesliga, Serie A, and La Liga, the European economy will accelerate the recovery together with the economies of China, Japan, and South Korea; and countries such as the United States, India, Brazil, and Russia will have to pay attention to the epidemic for insufficient attention and disadvantages in fighting the epidemic. Pay the bill'. 2. Judging from Trump’s repeated “point-and-talk and irresponsible remarks” on my country through the Hong Kong issue recently, but the first phase of the Sino-US trade agreement continues to be effectively implemented, Sino-US trade relations have once again torn up. The possibility of cracking or even 'fighting' is unlikely, and most of the current 'chicken and dog jumps' are just to create momentum for the special presidential campaign.　　 3. The 'two sessions' will lay the foundation for Zhengqi's rebound, and small and micro enterprises with high employment rates such as textiles and clothing will benefit. First, monetary policy will continue to be loose, there is still a lot of room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the downward trend of LPR will not change. Second, focus on how the 'two sessions' fiscal policy can be used and how to vigorously support small, medium and micro enterprises to ensure production, promote employment, and transit. Difficulty. Ma Jun, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China, interprets that the essence of fiscal deficit monetization is that when the government cannot make ends meet, the government does not 'borrow money' (such as issuing bonds to the market) to finance its fiscal deficit, but Rely on yourself to 'print money' to finance the deficit.　　 Let us look forward to the situation that 'the peak season is not busy and the off-season is not short' in the next few months. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn Import April