The US dollar strengthens, and foreign sales are cold. Whether the 'Silver Fourth' can return depends on domestic demand

The outbreak of the epidemic and the sharp drop in crude oil have triggered a rare decline in European and American stock markets. The sharp decline in the stock market may bring systemic risks. Many economists believe that the United States is already on the verge of a financial crisis and that the epidemic may become a new round of finance. The fuse of the crisis, economic expectations are extremely pessimistic. Cotton yarn and cotton fell sharply with the macro. As of March 19, the average domestic C32S price closed at RMB 20,252/ton, a decrease of RMB 357/ton from last week.　　 Judging from the downstream grey fabrics, the market after the year can be described as 'one twists and turns'. Due to the epidemic situation, many manufacturers have failed to start production on schedule, causing the loss of default orders. But in the same way, those orders that have not been cancelled have brought a 'good start' to companies that have resumed work after February 10. From mid-February to the end of February, some grey fabrics also ushered in a wave of 'boom in production and salesHowever, as time goes by, people will eventually find that this kind of market is just 'passing by'. In fact, this is the illusion that the supply was scarce due to insufficient production capacity a year ago. After entering March, the previous orders were almost completed, however, the new orders obviously could not keep up. The vast majority of foreign trade orders have the old order cancelled and the new order pending. Statistics show that the total number of stores closed in the United States in 2019 reached 9,300, breaking the record of approximately 8,000 store closures in 2017, including Victoria's Secret, GAP, Forever 21 and other brands. Coupled with the outbreak of the global epidemic after March, foreign countries are fighting each other, and it is currently an upward trend. In the past four days, the fashion industry has basically stagnated in the United States, and all clothing stores have closed. Since last Thursday, almost all of them have been closed. The share prices of apparel companies, apparel-based department stores, and apparel e-commerce companies suffered a cut, and a large number of companies' share prices fell below their net assets.　　 Looking at the situation of imported yarn again, as of March 19, the spot price of FCY Index C32S discounted to RMB closed at RMB 20,379/ton, a decrease of RMB 78/ton from last week. Since January, the global cotton price has been in a process of intermittent decline, and the cotton yarn processing costs of global textile companies have also fallen. Domestically, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in China in late January, purchasers' interest in ordering was greatly reduced, coupled with multiple price cuts in foreign markets within a short period of time, resulting in varying degrees of defaults in India and Vietnam. Some buyers with purchasing ideas also hesitated due to frequent price cuts, and the overall transaction of external disks was weak.　　 On the other hand, although U.S. stocks melted four times in 10 days, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen. On the afternoon of the 19th Beijing time, it rose above the 102 mark, setting a new three-year high. The reason is that during the market turmoil, global companies need U.S. dollars to meet liquidity needs. As long as the dollar shortage problem is not fully resolved, it will cause the dollar to rise. The strength of the US dollar index puts most non-US currencies under pressure from passive devaluation. On the evening of the 19th, the intraday decline of the offshore renminbi against the US dollar expanded to 750 basis points, falling below the 7.15 mark, continuing to hit a new low since October last year. The onshore renminbi fell 815 basis points to 7.1075 against the US dollar, after hitting the 7.11 mark before. The sharp depreciation of the renminbi has aggravated the wait-and-see attitude of domestic buyers.　　 Generally speaking, due to the continuous fermentation of the epidemic abroad, it is expected that the export market of the entire cotton spinning industry will be weak in the next six months. However, the lack of external demand, domestic demand to make up! According to the prediction of Academician Zhong Nanshan, the development of the global epidemic is estimated to continue until at least June. At present, large domestic commercial districts and textile cities have resumed work one after another. As of March 13, business districts and textile cities in many places have resumed work one after another. Although the flow of people is generally low and there are many vacancies, they are not compatible with the hot and peak seasons. However, the Guangzhou Zhongda Textile Business District has also entered a state of resumption of work recently, and the number of people returning to work on the first day is about 4,000 to 5,000, with a resumption rate of 40% to 50%, and it is expected that it will reach 80% by the end of March. With the resumption of work in these large and medium-sized commercial districts, shopping malls, and textile cities and the restoration of their former prosperity, it is believed that there will be a qualitative leap in the amount of downstream orders. On the other hand, clothing as rigid demand will only delay and not disappear. In February, the vast majority of Chinese people are 'cats' at home, go out less, don't gather, and consume less. Clothing consumption has been cut by more than 90%. By March, the situation improved a bit, the company resumed work, office workers were about to go to work, and clothing consumption began to start. However, this year's spring clothing must have suffered heavy losses, and the next step is to place hope in summer clothing. If according to the current domestic epidemic situation, the summer clothing consumption in April is expected to start, then as long as we avoid the situation of 'foreign orders surging and price wars in the domestic marketArticle Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn