The trading atmosphere of cotton yarn remains light, transaction prices continue to move downward, and downstream orders are insufficient. It is expected that cotton yarn market prices will run weakly

Foreign countries: In terms of the epidemic, many countries have re-entered the state of lockdown. Many states in the United States have suspended their economic restart plans, and the epidemic in India is not optimistic. The number of confirmed cases in cities such as New Delhi and Mumbai has increased significantly. The epidemic in South Africa has worsened and the curfew has been reopened. Affected by the epidemic, weaving factories currently have a serious shortage of orders and are pessimistic about the market outlook. According to the Ministry of National Food Security and Research of Pakistan, cotton planting in Pakistan has ended. The cotton planting area in 2020/21 will be 36.855 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and 92% of the target (39.945 million mu) will be achieved. Generally speaking, the cotton supply side Less affected.　　Domestic situation: the situation of reserve cotton, the third week (July 13-17) the reserve price of standard grade cotton reserve is 12,029 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from the price of 11,895 yuan/ton last week. According to June 2020, the Cotton Farmers Branch of the China Cotton Association conducted a survey on cotton planting in 2451 designated farmers in 12 provinces and cities in the inland and Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The survey results show that the national cotton planting area is 46.156 million mu, a decrease of 4.15% year-on-year. The unit yield is expected to increase slightly year-on-year, and the total output is about 5.765 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. As of the end of June, the national cotton budding rate was 97.53%, 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the incidence of pests and diseases was relatively mild.　　Upstream: This week, the spot price of cotton remained stable, maintaining a deserted transaction status. Crude oil remained fluctuating around US$40, and the price of direct-spun polyester staples continued to fall to bottom. The price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall this week. Some high-end manufacturers introduced a new price of 8,600 yuan/ton, and the mid-range fiber was less than 8,500 yuan/ton.　　 Yarn: The trading atmosphere of the cotton yarn market continued to weaken this week, and the transaction price center continued to move downward, mainly with small orders and bulk orders. The price of direct-spun polyester staples fell along with the raw materials, sales were flat, small factories dumped goods at low prices, and profit losses were serious. The rayon yarn market is slightly deserted, and the factory tries its best to maintain the start-up and delivery.　　 Downstream: The cotton grey fabric market has entered the off-season. The manufacturers' recent orders are mostly supported by regular customers and small orders. The conventional cotton grey fabrics have received poor orders recently, and the current start-up level is around 44.2%. The market shipment of rayon grey fabrics has been blocked, with prices falling mostly at around RMB 0.10/m. At present, the load of the rayon weaving factory is about 49%, which is down from the beginning of the week.　　 In general, pure cotton yarn has a large immediate theoretical profit loss, and polyester-cotton yarn is relatively good, but there is insufficient demand and high inventory. At present, the market has a strong off-season atmosphere and is affected by the macro economy. The demand side recovers slowly and is difficult to improve in the short term. It is expected that cotton yarn prices will run weakly next week.　　【One-week market overview】　　 The reserve price of standard grade cotton in the third week (July 13-17) is RMB 12,029/ton, which is an increase of RMB 134/ton from the price of RMB 11,895/ton last week. The price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple dropped by RMB 30/ton this week, partly at the edge of the break-even line, and the price remained in the range of 5250-5400. The price of 1.2D sticky short has dropped by 260, and some high-end manufacturers have introduced a new price of 8600 yuan/ton, and the low-end fiber is less than 8500 yuan/ton.　　 In terms of yarns this week: The current demand for combed cotton yarns in the market is obviously weaker than that of carded varieties, but the overall transaction is relatively small. Entering the off-season, coupled with the slow recovery of downstream demand and many other factors, the prices of yarns of various varieties have fallen to varying degrees. Among them, T32S has the largest decline, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton. [Domestic cotton yarn profit analysis] 　　 As of July 17, the domestic CY C32 price is 18560 yuan/ton (-20), CCI 3128B price is 12163 yuan/ton (0), the processing cost is 6000 yuan/ton, and the theoretical price of cotton yarn CY C32 is calculated 19379.3 yuan/ton. At present, cotton yarn CY C32 is in a state of negative profit, and the business pressure is relatively high.　　[Domestic cotton yarn profit analysis] 　　 The pure cotton yarn market continued to be light this week, and the inventory level of textile enterprises continued to rise. In terms of start-up, due to a serious shortage of orders, high-count yarn spinning enterprises have reduced and stopped production. The comprehensive start-up is still being adjusted downwards, and the phenomenon of high-temperature weather holidays will increase.　　 In terms of the grey cloth market, according to the China Textile City market transaction volume statistics, the total sales volume of grey cloth this week was 37.14 million meters, a decrease of 550,000 meters from the total volume last week. Among them, 26.07 million meters of chemical fiber cloths were sold this week, accounting for 70.2% of total sales, 1.86 million meters of cotton cloths were sold, accounting for 5.0% of total sales, and 3.85 million meters of rayon cloths were sold, accounting for 10.4% of total sales. At present, the overall order performance of the market is not good, export orders have not improved, companies have to destock and maintain the capital chain, and they are mostly pessimistic. [Spread structure and arbitrage analysis] 　　 As of July 17, the domestic CY C32 price was 18,560 yuan/ton (-10), the Indian C32S price was 18,100 yuan/ton (0), the spread was 460, and the Vietnamese jet C32S price was 18,400 yuan/ton (0). ), the spread is 160, and there is no arbitrage opportunity.　　 [Technical Analysis] 　　 This week, the cotton yarn CY009 contract maintained sideways fluctuations, with a shock range of 18960-19800 yuan/ton, the highest price was 19580 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 19255 yuan/ton. The position held on July 17 was 7765, which was 84 hands less than last Friday. [Market outlook] 　　 This week, the cotton yarn CY009 contract continues to be arranged sideways, with a shock range of 18960-19800 yuan/ton; the trading atmosphere of the cotton yarn market is still weak this week, downstream orders are seriously insufficient, the operating rate of weaving factories has declined, and the price of cotton yarn is expected Weak operation, it is recommended that speculators can go short with the range pressure back, pay close attention to the 19100 first-line support in the short-term, and continue to hold short orders if the support falls below this support. The profit-loss ratio is 3:1; textile enterprises should hedge appropriately according to the inventory pressure. (For reference only) Key words of the article: 　棉纱