The price increase of raw materials superimposes the traditional off-season, and the textile enterprises are in a dilemma

Entering June, the normal off-season of the market is approaching, and the market confidence of spinning companies is low. Regardless of domestic demand or foreign trade, companies generally believe that the downstream market will enter the off-season, and the cotton textile industry will once again face a big test. Small and medium-sized textile companies may once again face the crisis of production cuts and shutdowns. As of June 11, the average domestic C32S price closed at 18,722 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 7% compared to last week. Since June, with the closing price of Zhengmian 09 contract breaking through 11,800 and 12,000 yuan/ton, domestic lint prices have risen again and again, regardless of the basis price or the 'batch priceThe trend of return. This week, the cotton spot CC3128B index closed at 12,083 yuan/ton, an increase of 161 yuan/ton or 1.35% from last week. The rise of Zheng Cotton has given some traders the opportunity to receive goods and hedge and revitalize the cotton market. However, downstream textile enterprises have not kept up. As of June 5, the cotton inventory index of textile enterprises closed for 30 days, a decrease of 1.9 days from last week. This is because textile companies simply cannot accept the upstream raw material rise due to a lack of orders. Some textile companies have not purchased raw materials at a 'point price' or one-stop price for more than a week. Zheng Mian's main force of 12,000 yuan/ton has become a 'watershed' for textile companies to ask for prices or wait and see.　　 As for textile companies, domestic orders are gradually entering the off-season. A large number of textile and clothing companies have difficulties connecting 7/8 of their orders to the country. It is very likely that they will be in a state of 'after a meal, but not a meal.' Many textile companies said that if 12,000 yuan/ton of cotton is purchased at this time, it will inevitably be at a loss, and the inventory of cotton yarn is currently at the level of nearly three years, so there is no purchase plan, and the finished product inventory is mainly digested first. Some spinning companies said that June and July of the previous year were the off-season in the market. In terms of exports, the European Union, as one of the important export destinations, likes to take a high-temperature holiday between July and September. Countries such as France, Italy, and the Netherlands at least It takes about a month, so the export orders in the market in June and July have been relatively small, and will increase again after August and September. The peak is reached in the two or three months before Christmas, which is the 'golden nine silver ten'. Therefore, everyone is not optimistic about the downstream market in the next June and July. If it is fast, the market will not pick up until August. In terms of domestic demand, judging from consumption habits and the timing of downstream replenishment, July and August will enter the off-season, and orders will be in a state of unacceptable. Industry experts said that from June to September, some small and medium-sized enterprises may face pressure from production cuts, shutdowns, holidays or even closures. The reason is that the probability of the second wave of new crown epidemics in autumn and winter has greatly increased. Second, the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations is becoming more and more subtle, the risk of recurring trade frictions is rising, and the textile and apparel export environment may be subject to variables; third, domestic employment and income pressure are greater, and whether the consumption capacity of textiles and clothing is sustainable is worthy of attention.　　 This week, the price of imported yarn continued to bottom out and stabilized. As of June 11, the spot price of FCY Index C32S discounted to RMB closed at 18,547 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous month. Recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen sharply. For imported yarn, external orders can be stimulated to a certain extent, and traders purchase to amortize the purchase cost. Based on the price index of the current exchange rate, the cost of purchasing imported cotton yarn is now the lowest since late May. Compared with the spot price, traders now have some profit ordering Indian yarn and Vietnamese yarn, and the spot price of Pakistani cargo is still upside down. On the whole, the advantages of imported yarns in 2020 are not as good as in previous years. From mid-January to early March and mid-to-early April, domestic yarns have more advantages in absolute prices. On the other hand, China's downstream cotton fabric factories still have no obvious improvement in orders. Now domestic and foreign yarn factories have strict production control, and the prices of imported and domestic yarns are unlikely to drop significantly. The two are likely to run steadily and weakly, and the price difference is narrow. The probability of shock is large.　　Industry insiders estimate that if there are no accidents in the development of the epidemic at home and abroad, economic recovery and development will be an inevitable trend, and with the support of multiple new policies to stimulate the economy, the textile industry will flourish and prosper, and it will show an acceleration trend in the later period. Of course, the production and operation of various industries after the epidemic will encounter certain resistance in terms of quality and speed. There should be rational expectations for the market's turnaround. We should not place too much 'turning point' or 'miracle' on every business in hand. , It is very important to realize the perfect cycle of production and sales. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn