The market shows 'uneven hot and cold' and there are differences on the later trend (June 1-5, 2020)

1. Domestic cotton yarn spot prices stabilized. Futures prices rose slightly. This week, domestic cotton yarn spot prices stabilized. The average price of CNCotton C32S yarn index of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System was 18,745 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week, and the yarn-cotton price difference was 6,929 yuan/ton, which was 201 yuan/ton smaller than last week; the main settlement price of cotton yarn futures was 19,385 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, it rose by RMB 83/ton, higher than the spot price of RMB 640/ton, and the price difference expanded by RMB 83/ton compared with last week.　　2. International yarn prices fell slightly. The price difference between domestic and foreign prices continued to be positive. At present, the demand of downstream companies in India is still weak. Although the domestic cotton price in India has stabilized, the price of cotton yarn has fallen, and the profit of spinning mills has further shrunk. In addition, with the end of Eid al-Fitr and the epidemic prevention and control blockade, Pakistani textile mills resumed production, but cotton yarn exports are still sluggish. (1) 32 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price of Indian ports was 18,440 yuan/ton, down by 14 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] increased by 14 yuan/ton to 305 yuan/ton from last week. ; The average pick-up price of Vietnamese ports was 18,532 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from last week, and the price difference between China and Vietnam widened by 2 yuan/ton to 213 yuan/ton from last week. (2) 21 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price at Indian ports was 17,436 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and India widened by 8 yuan/ton to 368 yuan/ton from last week; the average pick-up price at Pakistan ports 17,286 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and Pakistan widened by 8 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton from last week.　　(3) 10 air-jet spinning 　　 This week, the average pick-up price at Indian ports was 12,400 yuan/ton, and the price difference between China and India was -525 yuan/ton, which has remained stable for two consecutive weeks. 3. The price of polyester staples dropped. The price of sticky staples remained stable this week. The average price of CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester staple) was 5758 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from last week. Cotton polyester The price difference increased from 249 yuan/ton to 6,058 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) was 8,800 yuan/ton, which remained stable for two consecutive weeks, and the cotton viscose price difference expanded by 201 yuan/ton to 3016 compared with last week. Yuan / ton.　　Fourth, outlook for the market 　　 Overall, the 'uneven hot and cold' present in the current textile market is mainly manifested in the following aspects: 　　 One is orders. It is reported that some companies said that the current orders have been basically completed, and they have begun to mobilize all department personnel to go out to find new orders; another part of the companies said that the current order situation is acceptable, and they originally planned to have a holiday, but they have now cancelled the holiday plan and are busy with the machine. produce. Compared with the domestic trade market, the improvement of foreign trade orders is not very obvious. According to traders, although there are recent inquiries in the export market, the transactions are relatively small and the volume is not large. However, it is better to have an order than not. In addition, the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that garment exports are still not optimistic. Data show that in May 2020, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories (RMB value) decreased by 23.3% year-on-year; from January to May 2020, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories (RMB value) decreased by 20.3% year-on-year. It is understood that Shandong and other provinces have more cotton yarn orders than those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the cotton yarn transaction price is lower than that in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets. The market sales are acceptable, especially for home textile orders. Some of the orders are for e-commerce '6·18' promotion. The poor yarn sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets are not only due to insufficient demand, but also factors that some companies are reluctant to sell and are unwilling to reduce prices.　　Second, the size of raw material inventory of enterprises varies. It is reported that most of the company's raw material inventory is about one month, and some air spinning manufacturers have up to seven months of raw material inventory, mostly low-priced cotton at the previous point price.　　 Third, there are disagreements on the later trend. Some optimistic companies believe that as long as there is demand, the market will slowly recover, especially with the support of the domestic market. Some pessimistic companies believe that there have been many small orders recently, and there are basically no large orders, and they have insufficient confidence in the later market and have a mentality of crossing the river by feeling the stones.　　 At present, in order to promote consumption and increase economic vitality in China, relevant supporting policies are frequently issued. From the issuance of consumer vouchers, 2.5 days of rest, to the stall economy, the intention to promote employment, increase consumption, and reduce inventories is obvious. However, we still need to analyze specific issues in detail. After all, the international environment facing China's economic recovery after the epidemic is more complicated, and the consumption driven by domestic stimulus policies is not all textile and clothing consumption. It has now entered June, and the traditional off-season of the textile market has arrived. With the continued fermentation of foreign epidemics, it is still impossible to judge that the turning point has come, and the continuation of the US riots, if not controlled, will affect the issuance of foreign trade orders in August. At present, the traditional peak season in the textile market in September and October and the launch of new flowers in September are getting closer. Before the new year, the recovery of textile and apparel consumption will be particularly important. Otherwise, the cotton carryover inventory will drag down the next year's market.　　 In summary, it is necessary to pay close attention to the benign transmission of the industrial chain in the near future, that is, whether textile enterprises can consume the original cotton inventory before the new year and convert it into cotton yarn and other products to be effectively delivered to the downstream. In the case that the overall order situation of textile enterprises has not improved substantially, it is expected that the yarn price will continue to fluctuate. It is not ruled out that the price of yarn may fall further due to the impact of the callback after the rise of cotton price.　　[1] The price difference in the article is the difference between the domestic yarn price and the foreign yarn price. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn