The impact of Saudi Arabia's attack on the pure polyester yarn market-mentality research and analysis

1. Description of the background of the incident. According to foreign media reports, at around 8 am Beijing time on September 14, Saudi Aramco’s world’s largest crude oil processing center in Abqaiq and the second largest domestic oil field, Khurais, suffered an attack. A group of 10 drones attacked, causing multiple fires, and the fire has now been brought under control. The Houthis in Yemen have already claimed responsibility for the attack. For safety reasons, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut down its crude oil production capacity of 5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia claims that the affected production capacity will be restored on September 16, but various sources indicate that it may take longer for its production capacity to fully recover. In response to this incident, the United States said it was ready to use its strategic reserves at any time to prevent Saudi Arabia's supply gap from shaking the global oil market. Saudi Arabia also said that it will activate its own crude oil inventory to ensure that crude oil exports this week will not be affected.　　 2. The impact of the incident on this variety　　 On September 16, driven by the price increase of polyester staple fiber, the mainstream price of pure polyester yarn was raised by 200. At present, the short delivery price of T32S including tax in Fujian is reported to be 12,000; the ex-factory price of ring spinning T21S including tax in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported to be 11,500, and the offer for vortex spinning has not been increased temporarily; in Hebei, the price of pure polyester yarn is temporarily stable, and the price of T32S is excluding tax for 11,000. . 3. Survey of market mentality Figure 1 Survey of mentality of people in the pure polyester yarn industry (the impact of this incident on the price of pure polyester yarn) 　　 In the survey of pure polyester yarn market, most industry players hold a short-term bullish view. The bullish view is: crude oil rises sharply and costs polyester Strong support from the end, the buying sentiment drove the enthusiasm of weaving companies to replenish the inventory, and the current peak season of traditional demand has also boosted the price of pure polyester yarn. A small number of practitioners hold a short-term stable mindset. The stable view is that the overall demand for downstream weaving is less than expected, down 3-4% compared to the same period in previous years. Some textile companies have a holiday of 2-3 days during the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the start-up is generally low, although there are raw materials. Strong growth, but the support of downstream demand is limited, yarn companies only rely on stable prices to make shipments. Individual industry players believe that the strength and duration of the rise in raw materials are not clear, and the downstream is cautiously watching the market, and there is no follow-up. Figure 2 A survey of the attitude of the people in the pure polyester yarn industry in the coming week (the price increase of pure polyester yarn) 　　 In the coming week, most industry players believe that pure polyester yarn will show a slight upward trend. The main point of view is that the rise in polyester staple fiber will boost the market transaction atmosphere. Yarns are shipped under the momentum, and the inventory of finished products has been relieved to a certain extent. However, according to previous experience, the downstream demand will gradually decline as the National Day approaches. At present, the overall operating rate of weaving companies is not high, which limits the growth of pure polyester yarn. Therefore, it is expected that the future The pure polyester yarn showed a slight upward trend in the whole week.　　 Figure 3 Mentality survey of people in the pure polyester yarn industry (the duration of the rise in pure polyester yarn)　　 At present, most market participants believe that the rising market can only last for less than a week. The main reason is that the watershed of the off-peak and peak season is approaching, the demand side is gradually declining, and as the raw material side stimulus dissipates, there will be a certain decline in production and sales after the market resumes rationality. Or present a pulse-like narrow-range upward trend.　　4. Sample of market mentality survey 　　 Description of the sample of this crude oil market mentality survey: There are 26 companies in the survey sample, including 18 pure polyester yarn manufacturers, 6 traders, and 2 weaving companies. Article keywords: 　Pure polyester yarn market