The fundamentals of international cotton prices are negative to suppress futures, and short-term supply is tight to support the spot

During the week of July 10-14, international cotton prices continued to fall. ICE futures fell sharply. The October contract fell 2.6 cents, or 3.7%, and the December contract fell 2.9% to close at 66.58 cents. The cost of cotton imports in Vietnam and Bangladesh has fallen, and domestic cotton prices in China, India, and Pakistan are still high. During the week, the monthly supply and demand forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture slightly increased global cotton production and consumption, but significantly increased this year’s and The ending inventory of the next year. Although China’s cotton inventory in 2017/18 is expected to decline for the third consecutive year, the inventory outside of China is expected to increase for the second consecutive year. China’s inventory consumption ratio is expected to drop to 103%, and the inventory consumption ratio outside China is expected to increase from 51.5% this year. Rose to 58%.　　 The above fundamental negative factors have caused cotton prices to fall sharply. Since mid-May, ICE cotton futures have fallen by more than 20% from their highs, indicating a bearish cotton price in the later period.　　 At the same time, the international spot market prices have also fallen sharply. The Courtluck A Index has fallen sharply with ICE futures. As of last weekend, the New Flower Index has fallen to 76.85 US cents.　　 However, the spot market prices in China, India and Pakistan were supported by the short-term supply shortage before the listing of new flowers. The tight supply of high-grade cotton in China prompted Zheng cotton futures to even rebound in the past week, and the spot prices in Pakistan remained firm. On the whole, spot prices in China, India and Pakistan are still high, Bangladesh and Vietnam continue to enjoy the benefits brought about by the decline in cotton import prices, and downstream clothing prices may be lowered soon. Article Keywords: 　International Cotton Price