The divergence of futures and current prices has increased, and the off-season will follow

Recently, the price decline in the yarn market has slowed down, and the market mentality is still cautiously bearish. Sales are weak. Spinners mainly produce shipments. The reduction and suspension of production continue. The main reason is the severe situation of the epidemic. to not fix. As of July 16, the average domestic C32S price closed at RMB 18,597/ton, which continued to fall by RMB 5/ton compared to last week.　　 From the perspective of cotton raw materials, as of July 16, the CC3128B cotton index closed at 12,163 yuan/ton, a significant increase from last week, an increase of 87 yuan/ton. Since the auction of reserve cotton rounds on July 1, not only 100% of the transactions have been made, but also the average daily transaction price and the Xinjiang cotton price increase have risen like 'opened'. However, if you analyze it carefully, there are fewer and fewer textile companies among the transaction companies, while the team of cotton traders is constantly growing. With the helpless withdrawal of cotton companies, the short-term production of cotton reserves has become a 'one-man show' for traders; but With the decline of Zhengqi and the continuous increase in the number of cotton reserves, traders will eventually 'cannot eat and digestOn the other hand, the phenomenon of cotton spot arrears, delivery, credit, and 1-3 months billing period is more common. Compared with receiving warehouse receipts and bidding for reserve cotton, it is even possible to purchase Xinjiang cotton spot. Pay after the sale of cotton yarn'; in order to facilitate the transaction, some cotton companies can provide services such as railway shipping, boarding, and freight forwarding for mainland textile companies and purchasers. Of course, it is also a good choice to purchase some 'high quality and low price' real estate cotton in the Yellow River Basin. In terms of cotton yarn sales, although cotton yarn futures prices have risen a lot with cotton prices, as of today, the main contract of cotton yarn in September closed at 19305 yuan/ton, but the spot market CY C32S cotton yarn closed at 18570 yuan/ton, and the price remained at the end of June. The sales price of cotton yarn is weak and stable, but sales have become difficult. Many cotton spinning mills report that the current sales of pure cotton yarn are slower than last month, and the cotton yarn inventory is gradually increasing. The cotton yarn inventory of some factories has reached two-month production. In the face of high cotton prices, downstream cotton yarn prices cannot keep up and sales are slowing down, most cotton spinning mills, especially small cotton spinning mills, feel pressured. Some mills have taken measures to reduce lint inventory, limit production and control production capacity to ensure that enterprises can be normal. Keep going.　　 Affected by the epidemic, the grey cloth market has deepened again after entering the off-season in May. As of July 16, the cotton grey cloth CG C32 closed at 4.5 yuan per meter. Under the shortage of orders, some weaving factories had to cut prices or increase preferential efforts to ship at the same price, and the price of grey fabrics remained stable and weak. Since April, the accumulation of inventory in weaving factories has accelerated and has reached a high level of about 33 days. Especially after the end of the mask cloth order in June, the production and sales of other types of grey cloths are low, and some have already reached the level of January. Under this circumstance, weaving mills also had to adopt a series of measures such as lowering the start-up, holiday, and changing production. From the demand side, the cotton cloth market in July is in the traditional off-season market, and the market demand is basically difficult to improve. From the current order situation, it is better to maintain the level of about half a month, so the demand in mid-to-late July is also difficult to guarantee. In this case, combined with traditional practices, the demand in late August is expected to usher in the peak season demand inflection point. Of course, considering the greater uncertainty of the epidemic, and the relatively high inventory of weaving factories, the initial period is still mainly to consume inventory.　　 From the perspective of the market outlook, there will be no significant improvement in the market outlook in the near future. The internal environment is that the entire consumption is downgraded, and the traditional off-season in July and August has arrived as scheduled. The external environment is even more sinister. With the second outbreak of the global epidemic, the Trump administration’s confrontation against China has intensified. In addition, some domestic companies have stepped up their efforts in Southeast Asia. Where should domestic textile companies go? Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn