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The cotton yarn spot market has slowed down, there is a serious lack of downstream orders, and the phenomenon of production stoppages has increased. It is expected that the short-term cotton yarn market will run weakly

by:Chengyi     2021-03-15
The overall trading of the cotton yarn market was weak, all varieties performed poorly, and the delivery of goods slowed down significantly. At present, textile enterprises are seriously lacking in orders and losing money. They are forced to cut prices and sell goods due to inventory pressure. In the downturn, weaving mills’ orders are difficult to connect, and the phenomenon of production cuts and suspensions is still increasing. The willingness to purchase cotton yarn is cold. It is expected that the pure cotton yarn market will remain weak in the short term.   [Market Overview]    Today, the overall cotton spot trading was slightly weaker, the spot price transaction was slightly weaker, and the one-buy price transaction remained stable. Recently, Xinjiang's epidemic control has been tightened, and other prefectures except Urumqi are relatively less restricted, but the market is concerned that the efficiency of cotton transportation out of Xinjiang may be affected to some extent, and the inquiries for cotton spot resources in the domestic basement are relatively good. Zheng cotton futures fluctuated in the night trading yesterday. CF2009 closed at 12,030 yuan/ton, up 80; CF2101 closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, up 85. Today, Zheng Cotton futures fell far flat, CF2009 closed at 11945 yuan/ton, down 5; CF2101 closed at 12545 yuan/ton, unchanged.   Today's direct-spun polyester short quotes are temporarily stable, and the price is close to the break-even line. The semi-gloss 1.4D mainstream transaction center is around 5250-5350 yuan/ton. The sales of polyester-cotton yarn in Jiangxi are flat, with TC65/35 32S mainstream at 13600-13800 yuan/ton.  Viscose staple fiber has worsened yesterday. The high-end fiber maintains a high price of 8,700 yuan/ton, and the mid-range fiber is relatively weak. The mainstream price is not higher than 8,600 yuan/ton.   Today, the prices of various yarns are mainly down, and the prices of pure polyester yarns remain stable.   The spot market for imported yarn was lightly traded, and the price was downcast. Mainly due to weak demand, the market oversupplied significantly. Traders sell goods poorly, traders and buyers bid extremely low, and there are not many transactions in the market. Since the beginning of this week, the prices of many domestic yarn mills have fallen by 100-200 yuan, and prices have run weakly, indicating that the pressure on the cotton yarn market continues. In the short term, due to the continued off-season market, the cotton yarn market is expected to remain weak.   The price of imported yarn on the external market is mainly stable. The recent spot shipment of imported yarn is not ideal. Taking into account the large subsequent arrivals to the port, coupled with the lack of obvious price advantage of cargo, the purchase intention of external disk is weak. India's external disk prices are mainly stable. Trader JC32S's US dollar transaction price is between 2.35-2.36 US dollars/kg, and RMB 19,700 after tax/ton. Vietnam’s external quotations remain stable, and some factories OEC21S can float at US$1.66/kg, and RMB 13,500/ton after tax. Pakistan's external disk prices are mainly stable. Recently, China's inquiry has been light, and the spot price of Siro is upside down by 100-200 yuan/ton. The trader's second-line Sirofang C10S quoted price of US$350-360/piece, and RMB 156-1.6 million/ton after tax. The transaction was light.   According to the statistics of the market volume of China Textile City, the total sales volume of grey fabrics today is 8.41 million meters, an increase of 1.01 million meters from yesterday. Among them, 5.77 million meters of chemical fiber cloths were sold today, accounting for 68.6% of the total sales, 410,000 meters of cotton cloths were sold, accounting for 4.9% of the total sales, and 970,000 meters of rayon cloths, accounting for 11.5% of the total sales. [Spread structure and arbitrage analysis]    As of July 17, the domestic CY C32 price was 18,560 yuan/ton (-10), the Indian C32S price was 18,100 yuan/ton (0), the spread was 460, and the Vietnamese jet C32S price was 18,400 yuan/ton (0). ), the spread is 160, and there is no arbitrage opportunity.   [Technical Analysis]    On July 16, affected by cotton prices, the price of cotton yarn 09 contract fluctuated and fell. The highest price was 19460 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 19260 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 19325 yuan/ton, down 85 points from the previous trading day. The open interest was 7,667, which was a decrease of 163 lots from the previous trading day.  [Market outlook]  Affected by cotton prices, today’s cotton yarn CY009 contract 19305 yuan/ton. The cotton yarn spot market is not well traded, the downstream orders are lacking, and the phenomenon of enterprise shutdowns is increasing. Under the off-season market, the cotton yarn market is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the 19200 front line, and it is recommended that speculators go short appropriately. (For reference only) Key words of the article:  Cotton Yarn Spot Market
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