The cotton yarn market is stabilizing and picking up, but whether it can continue is still unknown

Recently, the cotton yarn market has improved slightly, but the price is still stable and weak, and most manufacturers still focus on destocking. As of August 22, the average domestic C32S price closed at RMB 20,803/ton, down RMB 30/ton from last week.　　 From the perspective of yarn inventory, entering the second half of August, the overall order situation is slightly better than before. The destocking of some varieties of textile enterprises has achieved results, and the start-up is expected to rebound. However, many textile companies said that there are almost no large orders at present, there are many small orders, the number of pick-ups has increased, and profits are meager. With the arrival of the 'Golden Nine and Silver TenAccording to some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, although the market is sluggish, everyone adopts differentiated production and improves technical content. Production and sales can be balanced, and companies have relatively good profits. For example, a trader developed new products and achieved a 30% year-on-year increase in turnover. If you carefully compare and study these companies with different performances, you will find that their consistent business model determines their different results today. 1. Taking advantage of the low price of raw materials, take advantage of the trend to get the goods and reduce the cost. While many companies are hesitating about cotton raw materials, many experienced manufacturers are quietly taking goods at low prices; 2. Differentiated production, diversified operations, upstream trading companies, downstream gray fabric companies, and e-commerce marketing in the middle , Extending the industrial chain and introducing advanced technology at the same time, this is the only magic weapon for the long-term development of an enterprise.　　 From the perspective of cotton raw materials, there are currently two voices in the market. The first is that it has bottomed out. Since Zheng Mian’s main force closed at 12,175 yuan/ton on August 9, Zheng Mian has been finishing at a low level, especially after it reached 12,800 yuan/ton this week, there will be no sharp rise or fall in the short term. In addition, the market bearishness seems to have been exhausted. First, the United States has increased taxes on all products exported to the United States; second, on the 13th of this month, it was reported that the United States has postponed tariffs on some Chinese products, and China will immediately purchase large amounts of American agricultural products to ensure negotiations in September. Going smoothly, the leaders of the negotiations between the two sides held a phone call for the consultations in September. Stimulated by the above positive news, ICE futures rebounded sharply, with the December contract approaching 60 cents and closing at a high of nearly seven trading days. As a result, many optimists believe that cotton has bottomed out. And the second one that thinks that cotton bottoming is not over has its own reasons. First, the trend of the U.S. economy in recession and spreading to the world. Data shows that the total debt of the US government has risen to 22.57 trillion US dollars and is already out of control. This debt scale has exceeded the total GDP of the United States in 2018. Second, there is a big contradiction between supply and demand. According to survey data from the Logistics Branch of the China Cotton Association, the country’s total cotton commercial inventory at the end of July was about 2.8881 million tons, a decrease of 451,100 tons from the previous month, but an increase of over 1 million tons compared with the same period in 2017 and 2018. According to recent analysis by some institutions, domestic cotton consumption in 2018/19 dropped or exceeded 1 million tons compared with the previous year.　　 The downstream grey cloth market also seems to have improved. Previously, the market said it was not 'like' but 'lonely'. In June and July of this year, the market fading to new heights also made traders particularly anxious, not only fabric traders, but also clothing traders. In the words of a Shengze trader, more than 200 samples have been printed recently, but no real order has been received. But recently this deadlock seems to have begun to be broken. A Shaoxing trader complained last week that the orders were not comparable with previous years. This week he said that the number of orders received in August was almost the same as that of the entire month of July. Most companies also said that the production and sales in the factory can be leveled in the near future, but it is still unknown whether they can smoothly destock in the following days.　　 To sum up, with the advent of the traditional peak season, the downstream rigid demand is gradually released, at least the market has seen the 'dawn of hope'. However, the global economy in 2019 has entered a downward slope, and the market is very uncertain. All walks of life cannot escape this new economic cycle, and the textile industry is no exception. But the so-called 'crisis' has both 'crisis' and 'opportunities'. The key is to see whether companies can follow the trend and seize opportunities. The off-season is a brush, kicking out the companies that are busy 'counting money' and slack in the peak season, and leaving a complete cake for those companies that are often worried and brave to make breakthroughs. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn