The cotton yarn market is slowing down, domestic orders are insufficient, and inventories increase slightly. It is expected that prices will remain stable but weak.

In terms of the epidemic, as of June 21, Beijing time, the total number of confirmed cases worldwide reached 8,846,875, and the number of deaths was 462,361. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 2,330,578, and the number of deaths was 12,1980. In foreign countries, the latest data released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that US retail sales in May soared by 17.7% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase in recent days. Among them, the sales of apparel and accessories products increased the most, with an increase of 188%, which was market expectations. More than twice the value. Thanks to the restart of the state economy, business activities in the United States have picked up, and the pent-up demand of consumers has been released. As the epidemic eases day by day, many countries have begun to 'unblock' according to their own conditions, and some factories have resumed work and production, and started to accept orders. According to the Cambodian-Chinese Daily News, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 38 factories in Sihanoukville Province applied to suspend production, and 16 factories have resumed production so far.　　In the domestic situation, after June, the demand for cotton yarn market has deteriorated significantly, and the pressure on the supply side continues, the high inventory of domestic yarn and the collapse of the cost of imported cotton yarn may cause cotton yarn prices to fall after the end of June. The current market pessimism has been brewing for some time, and it seems that the probability of falling prices is not low. It should be noted that although the current price decline is still under pressure to reduce foreign orders from the epidemic, the market is no longer panicking. The current price decline is more due to seasonal weakening of demand and short-term supply pressure.　　Upstream: Cotton spot prices rose slightly this week, while spot transactions improved slightly. Viscose staple fiber was generally stable this week, but the popularity was insufficient. The mainstream viscose staple price index remained stable at 8,800 yuan/ton. Sales of direct-spun polyester staples were weak this week, and prices gradually declined. The mainstream transaction center of semi-gloss 1.4D moved down to 5650-5800 yuan/ton.　　 In terms of yarn: this week, the pure cotton yarn market has insufficient transaction momentum, and the decline is obvious. Domestic orders have decreased, and prices have dropped slightly. The price of direct-spun polyester staples dropped this week, the quotations of pure polyester yarns remained stable, production and sales were weak, and inventories rose. This week, the trading atmosphere in the rayon yarn market was insufficient, and some areas began to reduce production.　　 Downstream: In the off-season market, the trading atmosphere of the grey cloth market is not good, and some varieties with better pre-demand have declined. It is expected that the grey cloth market will continue to be weak next week. Generally speaking, the price of raw materials has loosened this week. The prices of pure cotton yarns have declined slightly. The prices of pure polyester yarns, cotton viscose yarns and polyester-cotton yarns have remained stable. The prices of rayon yarns and polyester viscose yarns have fallen. The demand for downstream enterprises is insufficient. The line price runs weakly.　　 [Market overview of the week] 　　 This week, the prices of pure cotton yarns declined slightly. The prices of pure polyester yarns, cotton viscose yarns and polyester-cotton yarns remained stable, while the prices of rayon yarns and polyester viscose yarns fell. The utilization rate of cotton yarn is around 44%, and the inventory continues to rise. In terms of yarns this week, the current export orders of a few companies have increased, but the orders are small and the back-end prices are severely reduced. The overall market recovery of foreign orders is still only a small margin. The domestic sales market in June is weaker than May, and cotton yarn At the end, the yarn price started to fall or the price was let go.　　 In terms of the grey fabric market, according to the China Textile City market transaction volume statistics, the total sales volume of grey fabrics this week was 30.85 million meters, a decrease of 7.51 million meters from last week. Among them, chemical fiber cloth sold 20.42 million meters this week, accounting for 66.2% of the total sales volume, cotton cloth sold 2.09 million meters, accounting for 6.8% of the total sales volume, and rayon cloth sold 3.28 million meters, accounting for 10.6% of the total sales volume. Compared with last week, grey cloth inventory increased slightly this week. [Spread structure and arbitrage analysis] 　　 As of June 19, the domestic CY C32 price is 18,600 yuan/ton (-50), the Indian C32S price is 18,300 yuan/ton (0), the spread is 300, and the Vietnamese jet C32S price is 18,500 yuan/ton (0). ), the spread is 100, and there is no arbitrage opportunity.　　 [Technical Analysis] 　　 This week, the cotton yarn CY009 contract continued sideways, with a shock range of 17,800-19,800 yuan/ton, the highest price of 19,465 yuan/ton, and the lowest price of 18,190 yuan/ton. On June 19, the CY009 contract open interest was 8,106, a decrease of 103 lots from the previous trading day.　　 [Market Outlook] 　　 This week, the cotton yarn CY009 contract continues sideways, with a shock range of 18190-19800 yuan/ton, the highest price is 19465 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 18190 yuan/ton. Entering the off-season, a few companies in the cotton yarn market currently have an increase in orders for export, but the orders are small and the back-end prices are severely reduced. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, SMEs have more holidays than in previous years. It is expected that the price of cotton yarn will run weakly in the short term. Focus on the first-line support of 19,000, and speculators can go short appropriately. (For reference only) (For reference only) Key words of the article: 　Cotton Yarn Market