Pure polyester yarn: do not move in the face of the first wave of 'Golden September' market

Introduction: According to past experience, from late August to the Mid-Autumn Festival has been the traditional peak season for the textile industry. Double Eleven and Christmas are coming soon, and the high temperature weather has passed. The production environment and order situation of the factory will be compared with the previous period. There is a noticeable improvement. But so far this year, the familiar market has not arrived as expected. Although the raw material polyester staple fiber rose slightly in early September, the price of pure polyester yarn remained unchanged due to the suppression of demand.　　 At the beginning of this month, multiple positives have jointly boosted the market. There are variables in the geopolitical situation, China's economic data is generally improving, and the global trade atmosphere is picking up. Affected by this boost, crude oil prices rebounded sharply, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol main futures also warmed up. Driven by the rise of raw materials, and at this time, it has been more than half a month since the last centralized replenishment. Downstream and terminal factories have overall purchasing enthusiasm Significant rebound, the overall production and sales data of polyester short-term factories improved, and the discussion center on polyester short-term factories was slightly up. However, the increase in raw material prices was only a flash in the pan and failed to drive the price trend of pure polyester yarn. During the week, the load of PTA manufacturers increased, and the expected increase in supply will drag the spot price trend of PTA period. In addition, terminal orders did not show a significant improvement. The atmosphere returned to plain again. As of the close, the mainstream discussion of ring spinning T32S in Fujian region with tax is concentrated in 11600-11700, the mainstream ex-factory price of T21S with tax in Xiaoshao region is concentrated in 11,200-11300, and the discussion in Jinzhou region without tax is concentrated at around 10800. Pricing. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)　　 In the later stage, the situation on the field is still not optimistic. Whether the peak season market can be reached as scheduled is still an unsolved mystery. According to Longzhong Information's research on terminal weaving, as of this week, the situation of oversupply of water-jet loom fabrics still exists, and the price exchange for each factory is still not as expected. The current orders are mostly urgent orders and small orders. Mainly, seeing the trend of large-scale orders starting, the industry is pessimistic; Zhejiang and Guangdong regions have markedly improved orders for large-circle knitting machines, and most companies have scheduled delivery orders. At present, the operating rate of large-circle knitting machines in the two places has increased to around 70%. However, the number of orders received is not as good as expected, and most companies can only support scheduled orders until mid-September.　　 On the macro level, it will also have a certain impact on the market. At the end of August, China and the United States successively announced that they would impose tariffs on each other during the year, which dragged down the market to a certain extent. However, at 9 a.m. on September 5, the leaders of the high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations made a call. The two sides agreed to hold the first meeting in Washington in early October. Thirteen rounds of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce Gao Feng also said that the 13th round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations to be held in early October will strive to achieve substantive progress. Whether the future macroeconomic trend is good or bad is still unknown, but it will definitely have a significant impact on downstream demand and product trends. From the perspective of the trend of raw materials, it may give a certain boost to pure polyester yarn. A large PTA plant plans to overhaul its 2.2 million tons of equipment in mid-September, and the new Fengming Dushan Energy 2.2 million tons of new equipment is now postponed to October Under the expectation that the polyester plant will start to increase gradually, the PTA trend will be supported after the production is put into production and the supply is reduced. In addition, after the initial heavy volume, the factory inventory generally drops to a low level, and the polyester short market price tends to rise and hardly fall.　　 Although terminal demand is still poor, the weaving industry has severe polarization in operation, regional and large-scale enterprises hold orders, and the start-up is steady and rising. Small, small and micro enterprises have few orders, and the start-up is hovering at a low level, and even long-term shutdowns. Due to global trade disputes, a large number of foreign trade orders have been stranded, and they have now been transferred to Africa, Southeast Asia and other regions. Downstream factories tend to wait and see the market outlook. Under the drag of sluggish demand, even if the price of polyester staple fiber rises, it is still relatively difficult to transfer to pure polyester yarn.　　To sum up, after September, the terminal demand was not as expected, and the number of orders was insufficient to maintain the start-up and production of conventional varieties, resulting in the current high inventory of grey fabrics and the shortage of funds for weaving enterprises. It is difficult to change in the short term. The narrow and warm trend at the raw material end has little effect on the price of pure polyester yarn. However, the operating pressure of weaving companies cannot withstand the price increase of upstream raw materials, and the pure polyester yarn market is mostly dominated by shocks. The Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, and the watershed of the traditional off-peak season is coming. The industry reports that the demand for pure polyester yarn by weaving companies has dropped by 3-4% compared with the same period in previous years. Based on the experience of previous years, there are still concerns about whether there will be a large demand in September. Article keywords: 　Pure polyester yarn