'Nine-ups' is coming soon, can pure polyester yarn regain its glory in previous years?

The news of trade negotiations changes frequently, and the market for pure polyester yarns fluctuates. In accordance with the practice of previous years, with the advent of the traditional textile peak season, the winter fabric purchasing season kicked off. However, compared with the hot market of pure polyester yarn in short supply in previous years, the market this year was obviously deserted. Can the 'nine rebounds' reverse the decadence of the textile industry in the first half of the year? Or will it face greater challenges in the future?　　 Observed from the supply and demand side, the price trend of pure polyester yarn has stabilized recently. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the new orders of pure polyester yarn companies are not as good as the same period in previous years. The current shipments are mainly based on the delivery of pre-sale orders. Under the support of pre-sales and a small number of replenishment orders, the social inventory of pure polyester yarn remained low. However, the industry still has concerns about the market outlook. In the short term, it is mainly to watch the market with stable prices. It is not ruled out that some yarn companies are trying to relieve financial pressure Selling sources of supply at low prices by making profits for volume. As of the close, the mainstream discussion of ring spinning T32S in Fujian region with tax is concentrated in 11600-11700, which is slightly higher than 11800, the mainstream ex-factory price of T21S in Xiaoshao and Shaoxing region is concentrated between 11200-11300, and the discussion in Jinzhou region without tax is concentrated in 10800. From left to right, based on quality pricing, the mainstream discussion of Vortex Spinning with tax in Zhejiang is concentrated at 13200-13400, and the discussion with tax in Jiangsu is concentrated at 13400-13600. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)　　 The weak demand environment and the partial bearish news superimposed, dragged down the market transaction atmosphere, and exacerbated the industry’s worries about the market outlook; according to statistics from Longzhong Information, yarn companies are operating at full load and are calculated at the cost of the day. Since the end of July, pure polyester yarn has been close to the cost line for nearly 30 days. This week, the Changle T32S disk surface processing fee was 4,448.75, a decrease of 218 from the previous month, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous month, and a decrease of 0.4% from the same period last year. At present, some enterprises are affected by the lack of work, environmental impact assessment and safety supervision, etc., which has intensified the financial pressure on pure polyester yarn with poor profit. (Unit: RMB/ton) 　　 Market forecast for next month: 　　 From the perspective of macro news: 　　 On the one hand, the repetitive, long-term and severe nature of trade negotiation issues poses the risk of disturbance to the raw material market and terminal market; on the other hand, The sharp depreciation of the offshore RMB against the US dollar will help export companies to obtain exchange gains. At the same time, the price of imported raw materials will also rise, and the exchange rate will be too high, that is, the greater the risk, which will have a certain impact on the textile industry quotation, and the benefits will be relatively good. Certain passivation. The PTA unit Hengli 2.2 million maintenance plan has not yet been implemented, and Xinfengming plans to put into production 2.2 million new devices in September, and the production capacity of 5.8 million tons has not been reported since the fourth quarter of 2018. The maintenance plan has not been announced since the fourth quarter of 2018. The probability of subsequent delays is unlikely. In addition, the high start of polyester production will also support the market. It is expected that PTA prices will still resist falling. The cash flow of polyester staple fiber is relatively low. If there is no major adjustment in the raw material end, it is expected that the market will continue to float down and the room will be very limited. The market still has great uncertainty, and the industry still needs to pay attention to the market carefully. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of conventional 1.56*38mm in the East China market may fluctuate between 7000-7400 yuan/ton next week.　　 From the perspective of the terminal market: 　　 From the raw material market: 　　 Recently, orders for large circular knitting machines in Zhejiang and Guangdong have improved. Most of the orders received by enterprises are mainly wholesale domestic orders. At present, the operating rate of large circular knitting machines in the two places has increased to around 60%. However, the industry is generally worried that such orders will last for a limited time, and some are expected to only last until the Mid-Autumn Festival.　　To summarize the above, pure polyester yarns are more bearish on the cost side and the demand side is not as good as expected. The demand transition phenomenon in the traditional off-peak and peak season has not yet appeared. The new order replenishment is mostly based on continuous customer replenishment. The downstream has not yet substantially improved, and pure polyester yarn will gradually face the risk of accumulation. Under the pressure of shipment, the market price is subject to downside risks. Taking into account the current poor profit of pure polyester yarn, it is expected that the pure polyester yarn market may be negotiated between 11500-12000. At the same time, the complexity of the global economy and trade environment and the existence of risk factors have increased concerns in the industry. In the second half of 2019, the textile industry will usher in the 'tough period' of the cold winter. Yarn enterprises should reasonably control inventory, self-discipline at low prices in the industry, and ensure the healthy operation of the capital chain. Even if the cold winter continues, the temperature is still lowering. Can always survive a warming day. Article keywords: 　Pure polyester yarn