New cotton damage in Texas, U.S., raises concerns, cotton prices enter a period of weather speculation

In recent weeks, hail and strong winds have adversely affected the new cotton in the Texas Plains of the United States, and the market's attention to the damage and abandonment rate of new cotton has increased significantly. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will publish in its August monthly report the U.S. cotton planting area, yield, and output based on field research. The abandonment rate is a key factor related to yield.　　 According to the actual planting area report released by the United States Department of Agriculture, the cotton planted area in the United States this year is 12.055 million acres. Although slightly lower than the intended planting area at the end of March, the year-on-year increase is still 20%. Among them, the area of u200bu200bcotton planting in the Southwestern United States with the largest yield was 7.1 million acres, a year-on-year increase of 19%, the highest since 1981. This year, the area of u200bu200bupland cotton in the southwest of the United States accounted for 60% of the total area of u200bu200bupland cotton in the United States, basically the same year-on-year, while 57% of the upland cotton in the region is located in the highlands of Texas, down from 61% last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's July monthly report calculated based on the average abandonment rate in the past ten years. This year, the U.S. cotton abandonment rate was 7%, which was higher than the 6% in the previous two years. The U.S. cotton harvest area was 112 million acres. The abandonment rate in the southwest is 10%, which is a historically good level. According to the situation reflected in the damaged cotton area in Texas, about half of the new cotton was lost in some areas, and the abandonment rate may reach 18-20%.　　 Due to the rising market concerns about damage to Texas New Cotton, ICE futures on July 18 continued to close for the third consecutive day, driven by partial short covering. At present, the market has entered the stage of weather speculation, and the weather conditions in China, the United States and India have a significant impact on cotton prices. Article keywords: 　美棉