The US Department of Agriculture’s November forecast has basically not been adjusted significantly. Global production has increased by 127,000 tons, mainly because India’s production has increased by 109,000 tons to 5.878 million tons, and US production has increased by 28,000 tons to 3.527 million tons. There is no significant change in global consumption and imports. India’s imports and exports have increased by 65,000 tons to 392,000 tons and 914,000 tons, respectively. Global inventories were raised by 208,000 tons to 19.225 million tons, mainly due to revisions to historical data in Central Asian countries. In recent months, the price trend of Indian cotton has been eye-catching. At the beginning of this year (March 23), the spot price of S-6 fell to a low of 62 cents. Soon, prices began to rise steadily, because India's domestic spot resources became increasingly scarce and could not meet the cotton demand of textile mills. Not only that, but India's production outlook for 2016/17 is not optimistic. As the prices of food crops in parts of India were more competitive last year, the area of u200bu200bcotton planted this year has been reduced by 10-15%. In addition, the late arrival of the Indian monsoon rain this year has also brought uncertainty to the yield and output. The above situation prompted the Indian cotton price to soar by 50% from the low point at the beginning of the year to a high of 92 cents on July 19. Subsequently, the trend of cotton prices in India changed significantly. The monsoon rains that began in early August are not only large in quantity but also evenly distributed, and the expectation of cotton yield will rise sharply. Even if the area is reduced by 10% this year, India's cotton production is still expected to increase by 2% year-on-year. At the same time, Pakistan's cotton yield is also expected to increase by 38%, and production is expected to increase by 18%. Therefore, Pakistan will not import a large amount of Indian cotton this year, so Indian cotton stocks may increase, causing the price of Indian cotton to fall again. Recently, the spot price of S-6 has fallen back to around 72 cents again. Indian cotton needs to find a way out to put pressure on other regions. At present, the price of Indian cotton is the lowest in the Kotruk Index. As this year goes on, the competition for cotton exports will become fierce. This year, not only India’s cotton production increased, but the output of other exporting countries also increased significantly. For example, the US cotton production increased by 25%, the Australian cotton production increased by 54%, the Brazilian cotton production increased by 20%, and the West African cotton production increased by 16%. At the same time, global cotton import demand is still weak. China’s cotton import quota will continue to be restricted. Bangladesh’s imports are expected to grow by only 2%, while Vietnam’s imports are expected to grow by only 10% after five consecutive years of rapid growth. Similar to Pakistan, Turkey's domestic cotton production has increased by 21% this year, so import demand has also decreased by 12%. It can be seen that the global export supply has increased this year, while the import demand has been stable. At present, the harvest of new cotton in various countries is increasing, and the quantity available for export will also increase. Whether the cotton can be digested smoothly in the later period will have an important impact on price trends. If the cotton reserves are 'opened and released' as planned next March, what kind of pressure will the market face? Article Keywords: Cotton
