According to reports from foreign businessmen and importers, since early and mid-July, Chinese textile companies and intermediaries have adopted a 'fixed price' method to sign contracts for Australian cotton in July/August and Brazilian cotton in September/October. 'ON- 'CALL' point price signings have been significantly reduced, preparing for the 'green and yellow non-acceptance' of domestic cotton supply in September and October. According to analysis, on the one hand, regardless of the technical aspects, weather in the main cotton-producing areas, and the US dollar index falling below the 95 mark, ICE cotton futures have entered an upward channel, and the main contract has a high probability of breaking the 68 cents or even the 70 and 72 resistance levels; on the other hand, On the one hand, the 2016/17 U.S. cotton's 'length and strength' indicators continued to decline due to port bonded and immediate shipment (the proportion of flowers in the middle and late stages is large); the Indian S-6 is still in a state of 'not good quality, not cheap' , Without the concern of China’s cotton import quotas within the 1% tariff, and with the arrival and shipment of a large number of Australian cotton mid-term spend (fiber length is generally 1-5/32 and above, breaking strength 30GPT and above), the buyer Begin to 'strengthen'; in addition, since late June, ICE’s main contract has continued to fluctuate in the narrow space of 66-69 cents/lb, and the quotation of SM 1-5/32 Australian cotton CNF fell to 84-84.20 cents/lb. The net pick-up price for general trade ports in RMB is about 14,400 yuan/ton, excluding the 1% tariff transfer and lease price), which is lower than the 'Double 28/Double 29' Xinjiang cotton 2500-3000 yuan/ton this year. Recently, some foreign businessmen and institutions have analyzed that the Chinese government will restart the “temporary purchasing and storage” policy in 2017/18. Moreover, from the perspective of the supply and demand of high-quality cotton, the substantial increase in global planting area and the price of foreign cotton, timely purchasing and storage of “high-quality” 'No three silks' machine-picking American cotton, Australian cotton, Brazilian cotton and Uganda cotton is a measure of 'three birds with one stone'. The 'Announcement on the Relevant Arrangements for the Rotation of National Reserve Cotton' (No. 9 of 2016) jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance clearly stated that 'in order to optimize the quality structure of the reserve cotton inventory, a small amount of high-quality cotton should be rotated after the reserve cotton is rotated. The rotation time is concentratedly arranged during the new cotton listing period (September of the current year to February of the next year). The number of rotations is mainly determined according to the actual rotation of the reserve cotton in the previous year and the supply and demand status of the cotton market in the current year. In principle, it is the largest Not more than 30% of the actual number of rotations in the previous year' (the digestion of the reserve cotton is mainly based on the principle of 'asymmetric rotation, first rotation, then rotation, more rotations and less rotations'). Therefore, the author believes that under the circumstance that there is little hope for the adjustment of the cotton import quota policy in 2018 (at least there is no news at the moment), the government will start purchasing and storage in advance and will be released after March 2018 to meet the enterprises' demand for high-quality cotton. , So as to achieve precise control. Then why should we store foreign cotton? 1. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton spot is too large (nearly 3,000 yuan/ton), which is not conducive to the export of China’s yarn, textiles and clothing; low-price purchases and storage of foreign cotton and then sell it at a relatively low price, reducing costs for textile enterprises, Competitiveness is very important; 2. The sales of high-quality machine-picked cotton such as U.S. cotton, Australian cotton, and Brazilian cotton have 'bloomed everywhereThere are not many purchasing opportunities for Chinese cotton companies in China; 3. After three years of reserve cotton for sale, Xinjiang cotton of better quality has been rotated in large numbers, and resources are gradually exhausted. If it is not purchased and stored in time, it will be rotated in 2018 and 2019. It’s difficult to stimulate traders’ bidding interest for the reserve cotton, and “destocking” is hopeless; 4. After 2017/18, the export volume of Central Asia’s cotton will be greatly reduced or even no longer exported (domestic demand increases, cotton yarn and grey cloth exports dominate), China Another raw material channel for cotton-using companies has been blocked and forced to participate in the global resource competition, and the outcome is unpredictable. Article keywords: Cotton outside cotton
