Flower yarn market has picked up slightly, downstream inventory remains high and orders are lost

This week, the yarn market continued the trend of last week and gradually recovered. As of September 11, the average domestic C32S price closed at 20,518 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 23 yuan/ton from last week. Recently, good news at home and abroad has been frequently released. For example, China and the United States agreed to reopen a new round of trade negotiations in October, and market optimism has risen; the People's Bank of China lowered its RRR by 0.5%, releasing about 900 billion yuan of long-term funds to stabilize the market; Fed Chairman Powell The remarks further strengthened expectations from all walks of life for the Fed to cut interest rates in September; this Tuesday, Trump suddenly 'fired' Bolton, a senior official of the National Security Council, indicating that the special government's foreign policy is more inclined to 'talk' and 'do less'; even early this morning. , Trump announced on Twitter that, as a gesture of goodwill, he postponed the decision to impose high-quality tariffs of $250 billion until October 15 and so on. After receiving so much good news, coupled with the release of 'Golden Nine and Silver TenAs can be seen from the above figure, the national yarn inventory has dropped from nearly 30 days to about 24 days. However, it will take time for the positive macro news to be reflected in the market. At present, many textile companies said that although orders have increased compared to August, they still face smaller orders, poor capital turnover and more workers' loss. Right now, destocking and throwing away is a top priority for most companies.　　 From the perspective of upstream raw materials, a series of macro news and the fact that most of Xinjiang's cotton areas suffered from low-temperature rainfall, Zheng Mian took the lead in opening the rebound mode, and the CF2001 contract once stood at 13,000 yuan/ton. Spots are closely following the pace of futures and are gradually picking up this week. But this year, ginners generally postponed the acquisition of seed cotton, which caused the new cotton to go on the market later. Since the reserve cotton has entered the last month of the round, the transaction volume has remained above 90% from the 1st to the present, and 100% of the transactions have been continuously traded in recent days. The reasons for this are nothing more than three points: First, the state-owned cotton reserves are cost-effective and meet the actual needs of the spinning mills; second, although the market is not satisfactory, the spinning enterprises generally have low raw material inventories and good spinning profits. Increase inventory, in case the new cotton is not listed in time, it is likely that lint will be out of stock later; third, the storage of cotton does not need to be moved and other procedures, which can meet the company's phased capital needs.　　 Looking at the downstream weaving market again, unlike the cotton and cotton yarn market, the sales atmosphere in the pure cotton market in September was not significantly better than that in August, and the weaving mills lacked confidence. The inventory of weaving factories has declined slowly. Although shipments have improved recently, the inventory is still at a high level. This week, the price of 32 cotton cloths even fell below 5 yuan/meter, a record low. For the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, some weaving factories have arranged holidays, and the number of holidays has increased compared with last year. In terms of inventory, weaving mill inventory began to increase in April this year, and in June the inventory of cotton cloth was higher than the same period last year. In accordance with the practice of previous years, the inventory of the weaving factory began to decline gradually in mid-August, while the inventory of the weaving factory remained high during the same period of this year. In early September, with the implementation of real orders and the weaving factory's preferential shipment regardless of cost, the inventory pressure of the weaving factory was released. Up to now, the inventory of cotton fabrics is still high compared with the same period last year.　　 Generally speaking, there are still uncertain factors in the macro disturbance event, but the overall trend is improving, and the upstream of the cotton spinning industry chain has begun to pick up. However, the industry's prosperity has not yet reversed, textile enterprises' inventories remain high, and there is a clear oversupply in the market. Destocking will be a long-term process. However, despite the fact that this year's 'Golden Nine and Silver Ten' is in short supply, with the release of rigid demand, the cotton yarn market is expected to be boosted, and trading may improve temporarily. However, due to the loss of some downstream orders from Southeast Asian countries, coupled with the domestic macroeconomic downturn, it is expected that orders from weaving mills will not recover well in September. Article keywords: 　花纱