Both cotton consumption and imported cotton yarn demand are in a 'shift period'

The reason for the surge in China’s cotton yarn imports is mainly due to the price difference between domestic and foreign prices. This year, China’s top source country for imported yarns has become Vietnam, and the proportion of low counts in imported yarns has increased. Is 1.93 million tons). At present, the textile industry is in a very critical period, which is what we often call the 'shift period.' The 'shift period' can be understood from several aspects: first, the textile industry itself is in a cycle of industrial restructuring; second, any section of the textile industry, including cotton consumption and the demand for imported cotton yarn, are all in the same Shift period'. What has changed during this period? 　　 In 2012, China’s imports of cotton yarns saw a rapid growth, including the next two to three years, the growth was explosive. The amount of imported cotton yarn used in Lanxi, Zhejiang was once representative. In Lanxi, more than half of the annual yarn consumption of more than 500,000 tons is imported. In 2015, the domestic import volume of pure cotton yarn was 2.345 million tons, and the total amount of yarn used in China was about 7.855 million tons, and the import ratio accounted for 29.85%. In fact, there are many reasons behind the large proportion of China's cotton yarn imports. I personally think that China's low cotton yarn output is not due to insufficient self-sufficiency. Now China's self-produced cotton yarn is about 6 million tons. Imports have surged after 2012, mainly due to the internal and external price difference. . After the roller coaster market, after the price of domestic cotton fell from a high level, some regulatory policies were introduced during this period. The industry believes that the cotton market during this period is a 'policy market　　 Everyone thought that imported yarn was concentrated in the low count range. At the earliest, the main source of domestic imported yarn was indeed low count. The main source was Pakistan, and the proportion of imports was also the largest. Mainly because of the friendly relationship between China and Pakistan, and Pakistan's import tariff is also the lowest, only 3.5 points. According to the proportion in 2012, the proportion from Pakistan has reached 36%. Other countries are relatively small. For example, India has only 20%, followed by Vietnam in third place. From January to July 2016, there was a big change in the imported yarn market. It was difficult for Indian cotton and yarn to enter the Chinese market. The reasons were two-way: first, the price was too high for China to buy. I don't want to buy it because there are lower prices in China. Second, Indian sellers feel that the market price in China is too low, and the actual selling price in India can be higher than that in China, and they are even exploring some markets outside of China.　　 This year, the largest source country of China's imported yarn has become Vietnam. There are many reasons: First, more than 80% of the output of Chinese enterprises investing and building factories in Vietnam is basically sold to China, which supports a certain amount. Second, the lead time for products between China and Vietnam is relatively short. Third, this year's volume has increased a lot. Another reason is that the cotton used in Vietnam is mainly American cotton and African cotton. The cost of cotton used in Vietnam is lower than that in India, so its price is still competitive in the Chinese market. .　　 Looking at the third quarter, the price of imported yarn appeared inverted, that is, foreign prices are actually higher than domestic prices, and import demand is gradually weakening. It is expected that the fourth quarter will affect the import volume. Judging from the customs data from July to August, the volume of imports is still a lot. It is understood that some downstream companies did not import in the first few months, but after a wave of rising prices in late June, companies have participated in the market. Therefore, the amount of imported yarn has increased in the two months from July to August. Expected to slow down. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn Imported Cotton Consumption