Say goodbye to 'Golden Nine and Silver TenWhere does the market go from here?

'Golden Autumn October' has just passed, but the textile market can hardly see the 'Golden Nine and Silver Ten' scenes. As of October 31, the average domestic C32S price closed at 20,478 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week. The overall yarn market in various regions is still in a weak and flat atmosphere, and the market's confidence in the market outlook is difficult to boost. Due to the large stocks of textile enterprises, and the continuous poor downstream sales, yarn prices are weak, and market transactions are flat. From the perspective of yarn inventory, the recent delivery of goods has been relatively smooth, but the departmental varieties have declined, and the inventory has declined, but the speed has slowed down. At present, the average inventory of textile enterprises is around 19 days, which is close to the same period last year, but it is still high compared with 2017. In terms of start-up, textile enterprises gradually restarted after the National Day, and the overall adjustment was slowly increased. Currently, the start-up is relatively stable, and the start-up load is maintained at about 58%.　　 From the situation of downstream weaving mills, the market trend is better than that of yarn, but due to too much inventory in the previous period, it is still maintained at around 26 days. At present, weaving factories mostly produce winter orders, but they are coming to an end. There are not many orders for spring and summer fabrics, and production stocks in some areas are prepared for the coming year. Export orders were weak, and weaving mills reported an increase in orders to Vietnam. On the whole, the downstream market is not optimistic, the procurement is very cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is quite strong.　　 Recently, the upstream cotton trend has picked up slightly, but generally speaking, from the beginning of September to the present, due to the macro environment, the price of cotton has fluctuated greatly, while the price of pure cotton yarn is relatively stable, and the trend is obviously weaker than that of cotton. It can be seen from the theoretical profit and loss chart that spinning enterprises still have a profit in spinning. However, the prerequisite for earning still requires orders. As the order volume of downstream weaving factories is far lower than in previous years, and the order connection is difficult, most textile companies said that pure cotton yarn is under pressure to increase prices, but actual operations are difficult. From the perspective of cost support, unless cotton prices continue to rise sharply in the short term, the momentum for pure cotton yarn to rise is still insufficient.　　 In recent months, the price of inner and outer yarns has remained the same. As of October 31, the FCY Index C32S index closed at 21,187 yuan/ton, the same as last week. According to Chinese customs data, China imported 150,000 tons of cotton yarn in September 2019, a sharp drop from last year. However, according to market research, the real situation is not so absolute. The main reason is that a large number of Chinese imports of Pakistani yarn have not entered the statistical system due to the statistical caliber of customs data. It is estimated that from January to September 2019, China imported about 240,000 tons of Pakistani cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease. Around 10.5%. According to Pakistan Customs data, Pakistan exported 343,000 tons of cotton yarn from January to September 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%, of which the proportion of exports to China remained stable or increased slightly. On the whole, the cotton yarn trade between China and Pakistan is proceeding normally, and China's import volume remains stable.　　 On the other hand, Pakistan's yarn mills are currently profitable, mainly due to the sharp depreciation of the rupee and China's tariff policy on Pakistani yarn. However, due to the current surge in domestic cotton in Pakistan, Pakistan has to import from abroad in order to make up for the shortage of raw materials. However, the current India-Pakistan confrontation and the stagnation of commercial activities have increased Pakistan's imports of US cotton and Vietnamese yarn, which indirectly led to the 'outstanding' of Vietnamese yarn among the major foreign yarns, maintaining an upward trend.　　 Generally speaking, the current yarn market is acceptable and can be maintained for a period of time, but the market outlook is still very severe. Macro-economic benefits cannot give the company actual benefits and have limited impact on the market. Whether the price can rise in the future depends on the trend of raw cotton. Article Keywords: 　 Yarn Market