International yarn prices stop falling and rise, domestic textile market is weak (June 8-12, 2020)

1. Domestic cotton yarn spot maintains stability The price of grey fabrics fell again. This week, the domestic cotton yarn spot price remained stable for two consecutive weeks. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price is 18745 yuan/ton, the yarn-to-cotton price difference is 6752 yuan/ton, which is 177 yuan/ton smaller than last week; the average price of cotton yarn futures settlement is 19513 yuan/ton, which is 128 yuan higher than last week. Yuan/ton, higher than the spot price of 768 Yuan/ton, the price difference widened by 128 Yuan/ton from last week. This week, the average price of the more representative cotton grey cloth 63'40*40 133*72 remained stable for three consecutive weeks, and then fell by 0.01 yuan/meter to 8.15 yuan/meter. 　　 2. The international yarn prices stopped falling and the price difference between inside and outside was rising month-on-month. In recent days, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and other Central Asian C32S, C40S cargo, and the US dollar quotations of bonded yarns have increased, mainly due to the rise of ICE futures in early June, the decline in cotton yarn production capacity caused by the epidemic, and the increase in transportation costs. Traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places said that in the recent foreign markets, Vietnam’s medium and low-quality C16S-C32S cotton yarns (without bleaching and machine) inquiries and contracts are more active than those of India and Pakistan. Purchasers are small weaving factories, Intermediaries are the mainstay.　　(1) The average pick-up price of 32 cotton yarns at Indian ports this week was 18,492 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan/ton from last week, and the price difference between China and India [1] [1] was 52 yuan/ton smaller than last week To 253 yuan/ton; the average pick-up price at Vietnamese ports was 18,544 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, and the price difference between China and Vietnam narrowed by 12 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton from last week. 　　 (2) 21 cotton yarns this week, The average pick-up price at Indian ports was 17,462 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and India narrowed by 10 yuan/ton to 358 yuan/ton from last week; the average pick-up price at Pakistan’s ports was 17,300 yuan/ton, an increase from last week 14 yuan/ton, the price difference between China and Pakistan expanded by 2 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton from last week. 　　 (3) The average pick-up price of 10 yarns at Indian ports was 12,400 yuan/ton this week, which remained stable for three consecutive weeks. The price gap between India narrowed by 1 yuan/ton to -526 yuan/ton from last week. 　　 3. The price of polyester staples rose sharply, and the price of sticky staples remained stable. This week, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System Chemical Fiber Index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct-spun polyester staple) The average price is 5880 yuan/ton, an increase of 122 yuan/ton from last week, the cotton-polyester price gap widens from last week by 55 yuan/ton to 6113 yuan/ton; the average price of CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) is 8800 yuan/ton, continuous It has remained stable for three weeks, and the cotton price difference has increased by 177 yuan/ton to 3193 yuan/ton from last week. 　　 IV. Outlook 1. Vietnam’s free trade agreement with the European Union may affect the competitiveness of China’s primary products. It is reported that the free trade agreement between Vietnam and the European Union It will take effect in July and will cut or cancel 99% of the import and export expenses of the two sides’ goods trade, which will benefit Vietnam’s exports to the EU market and will bring a market of 10 trillion U.S. dollars for Vietnam’s exports. For China, Chinese textiles The competitiveness of primary products, such as footwear exporters and manufacturers, may be affected by the Vietnam Free Trade Agreement. 　　2. Unsmooth supply and demand linkages, unsatisfactory demand recovery. Affected by the epidemic, people’s outings have decreased, and the demand for textiles and clothing has fallen. After the epidemic has been effectively controlled, although the demand for textiles and apparel has recovered, the degree of recovery is not satisfactory. According to the Keqiao Textile General Prosperity Index and the Total Production Prosperity Index, in May 2020, the textile market general prosperous index and the total production prosperous index are compared Although last month There has been a rebound, but it is still the lowest level in the past 10 years (see Figure 1); according to the Shengze Silk Market Prosperity Index, in May 2020, the prosperity index hit a new low since August 2007 (see Figure 2).　　 In addition, the continued decline in prices has also confirmed weak demand. According to the Keqiao Textile Price Index, on June 8, 2020, the Keqiao Textile Price Index was 103.96, a slight increase of 0.11 from the previous month, but it was still at the lowest point in the past three years (see Figure 3). In summary, although the main contract of Zheng cotton futures rushed to above 12,000 yuan/ton earlier this week, which led to an upward trend in cotton yarn futures prices, the support for the rise of cotton yarn was insufficient. The current shortage of orders is still the biggest problem facing textile enterprises. After entering June, many textile companies said that the cotton yarn market has declined compared with May, and the inventory of finished products has increased. Concerns about the market outlook are heating up. The local sales are mostly low-count yarns, and cotton prices have not risen. Driven up by spot yarn prices, the profit margin of textile companies is further squeezed. It is expected that the cotton yarn market will continue to be dominated by weak operations in the near future, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to changes in the external market and the recovery of textile companies' orders. Article keywords: 　International yarn prices textile market