Global economic recession and weakening of domestic and foreign yarn prices (June 22-26, 2020)

1. Domestic cotton yarn futures and spot prices continued to decline. This week, domestic cotton yarn futures and spot prices continued to decline. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price of 18,655 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week, the yarn-cotton price difference is 6,798 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of cotton yarn futures settlement is 19142 Yuan/ton, down 90 Yuan/ton from last week, higher than the spot price of 487 Yuan/ton, and the price difference narrowed by 20 Yuan/ton compared with last week.　　2. International yarn prices continue to fall　　 For nearly half a month, China's main ports of bonded and non-bonded cotton yarn stocks increased slightly compared with April and May, mainly distributed in Ningbo, Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other ports. At present, the 'cargo' quotations of Indian cotton yarn ports in July and August are continuously 'upside down' with bonded yarn (CNF or CIF). Weaving enterprises and intermediaries in coastal areas, Henan, Hebei, Hubei and other places are more willing to inquire and place orders for far-month ships. In India, the enthusiasm for purchasing bonded or customs clearance yarns is not high. (1) 32 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price of Indian ports was 18,414 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton from last week, and the price difference between China and India [1] [1] decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 241 yuan/ton from last week. ; The average pick-up price of Vietnamese ports was 18,496 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from last week, and the price difference between China and Vietnam narrowed by 26 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton from last week. (2) 21 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price of Indian ports was 17,388 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and India narrowed by 6 yuan/ton to 362 yuan/ton from last week; the average pick-up price of Pakistan ports 17,260 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and Pakistan narrowed by 26 yuan/ton to 490 yuan/ton from last week.　　 (3) 10 air-jet spinning 　　 This week, the average pick-up price at Indian ports was 12,378 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and India expanded by 20 yuan/ton to -513 yuan/ton from last week. 3. The price of chemical fiber continued to drop slightly. This week, the average price of chemical fiber index CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester staple) of the national cotton market monitoring system was 5730 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, and the cotton-polyester price gap narrowed compared with last week. 26 yuan/ton to 6127 yuan/ton; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price of 8,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week, cotton viscose price gap narrowed 28 yuan/ton to 3157 yuan/ton Ton.　　Four. Outlook 　　 1. Cotton yarn imports have dropped significantly year-on-year. Due to the impact of the Sino-US trade dispute and the new crown pneumonia epidemic dragged down the global economy, my country's cotton yarn imports this year are far below the level of the same period last year. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in May 2020, my country imported 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 28.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 52.4%; from January to May 2020, my country's cumulative import of cotton yarn was 720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%.　　2. Downside risks to the global economy are still significant.　　 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the downside risks to the economy are still significant, and the continued decline in economic activity may cause further 'traumaThe IMF predicts that the GDP growth rate of developed economies will be -8.0% in 2020, compared to the previous forecast of -6.1%; the GDP growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is -3.0%, which was previously expected to be -1.0%. The IMF stated that more fiscal and monetary policies are needed to ease the impact of the new crown virus in order to lay the foundation for an economic rebound. The latest global economic outlook forecast released by the IMF stated that the new crown epidemic has cost the global economy US$12 trillion and stated that the global economy is experiencing the worst recession since the Great Depression. The global GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.4% in 2021, compared with the previous forecast of 5.8 %.　　3, the stock of grey fabrics in Shengze area reached the highest level since 2018. 　　 According to Wind data, since March 2020, the number of grey fabric inventory days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area has basically been more than 40 days, which is the highest level since 2018. From the perspective of monthly data, since 2020, the number of inventory days per month has been higher than the level of the same period in the previous two years. (See the figure and table below) 　　 4. 'Export to domestic sales' ushered in a heavy support policy 　　 In response to the impact of the epidemic on exports, many foreign trade companies have moved to the domestic market. Recently, 'exports to domestic sales' ushered in a heavy support policy. The General Office of the State Council issued the 'Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Conversion of Exported Products to Domestic SalesBuild a platform for re-domestic sales, accurately meet consumer demand, improve the facilitation of re-domestic sales, provide financing services and financial support, etc., support marketable export products to open up the domestic market, and strive to help foreign trade companies overcome difficulties.　　5. Canton Fair: Expanding new markets and injecting new impetus　　 Recently, the 10-day 127th Canton Fair came to an end. This year's Canton Fair was held entirely online for the first time, attracting overseas buyers from 217 countries and regions to register for the exhibition, and the distribution of the source of buyers set a historical record. This year's Canton Fair helped foreign trade companies to explore the 'Belt and Road' market. Buyers along the 'Belt and Road' accounted for more than 45% of the fair, and they were steadily increasing. In addition, in addition to overseas intentional orders, the docking with domestic buyers has also sent a 'timely rain' to many companies that are eager to switch domestic orders.　　 In summary, the domestic New Deal and the just-concluded Canton Fair have brought good news to foreign trade companies, but the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the global financial environment cannot be underestimated, especially the second outbreak in the United States has made the international financial environment full of haze. On the other hand, in the domestic market, from the feedback of traders, there are still a lot of imported yarn stocks in the port. At present, the production of textile enterprises is limited by the large reduction in export orders. The domestic short orders and small orders are still the main ones. The grey fabric market appears in the off-season. Inventory has risen and operating rate has shown a downward trend. Insufficient demand is still the biggest factor restricting the development of the textile market. It is expected that yarn prices will remain weak in recent days.　　[1] The price difference in the article is the difference between the domestic yarn price and the foreign yarn price. Article keywords: 　 inner and outer yarn prices