Cotton yarn spot growth expands 'Golden three silver four' or difficult period (March 2-6, 2020)

1. Domestic cotton yarn spot growth rate expanded. Futures price decline rate narrowed. This week, domestic yarn spot price rose sharply, and the rate of increase was significantly larger than that of last week. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S yarn index average price is 20665 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton from last week, the price difference of yarn and cotton is 7861 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 670 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of cotton yarn futures settlement is 20784 Yuan/ton, down 19 Yuan/ton from last week, higher than the spot price of 119 Yuan/ton, and the price difference narrowed by 211 Yuan/ton compared with last week.　　 It is understood that due to factors such as low inventory of finished products of some domestic textile companies that have resumed work, increased logistics expenditures and rising costs (mainly investment in epidemic prevention materials), the ex-factory prices of some domestic yarns have risen by 200-500 yuan/ton against the trend. 2. International cotton yarn prices continue to decline (1) 32 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price of Indian ports was 20,632 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread between China and India [1] [1] increased by 228 compared to last week. From RMB/ton to RMB 33/ton; the average pick-up price at Vietnamese ports was RMB 20,252/ton, down by RMB 6/ton from last week. The price difference between China and Vietnam widened RMB 198/ton to RMB 413/ton from last week. (2) 21 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price at Indian ports was 19,740 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from last week, and the price gap between China and India widened 98 yuan/ton to 392 yuan/ton from last week; the average pick-up price at Pakistan ports 19330 yuan / ton, down 16 yuan / ton from last week, the price difference between China and Pakistan widened 98 yuan / ton to 802 yuan / ton from last week.　　 (3) 10 air-jet spinning 　　 This week, the average pick-up price at Indian ports was 13,380 yuan/ton, which remained stable for three consecutive weeks. The price difference between China and India widened by 34 yuan/ton to -111 yuan/ton from last week.　　According to the feedback from cotton yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, affected by the adjustment of global stock markets, ICE futures and Zheng cotton futures, since the end of February, the domestic and foreign prices of imported yarns have continued to decline, especially the high-end carded yarns of C20-C32S in Vietnam. From the perspective of port shipments, the inquiries and transactions of imported OE yarn, Pakistan 8-16S Siro spinning, and JC21 and JC32S cotton yarn decreased compared with the previous two weeks. 3. Polyester staple fiber continued to decline. Viscose staple fiber remained stable. This week, the national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct-spun polyester staple) average price was 6,426 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from last week , The cotton-polyester price gap narrowed by 388 yuan/ton to 6,378 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) was 9,600 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the cotton and viscose price gap narrowed by 478 yuan/ton compared with last week. To 3204 yuan/ton. 4. Outlook for the market outlook (1) The traditional “golden three and silver four” may not be as expected and the domestic epidemic will enter the “second half”. The upstream and downstream enterprises in the textile industry chain are gradually returning to work and production in an orderly manner. Low operating rate, delays and delays in the delivery of many customer orders. According to the tradition of previous years, during the 'Golden Three and Silver Four' period, many manufacturers will be able to destock more smoothly. However, affected by the epidemic this year, the shutdown time of factories is at least half a month longer than in previous years. Increase, the inventory of finished products will inevitably increase and lead to sales pressure.　　 From the perspective of clothing again, the textile and apparel market is both popular and time-sensitive. Clothing that has not been sold due to the epidemic in the winter of 2019 will be carried over to the winter of 2020. The epidemic is still spreading, spring clothing sales have been affected, and the increase in spring clothing inventory will indirectly affect autumn clothing consumption. Under the impact of the epidemic, corporate cash flow will become tighter, and the industrial chain will be intertwined, which will force cloth factories and spinning mills to operate. deterioration.　　(2) Competition in the domestic market may intensify　　From a global perspective, the latest WHO data shows that there have been more than 100,000 cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide, and the epidemic is still spreading in many parts of the world and is in an 'rising period.' Affected by the epidemic abroad, many foreign trade companies have interrupted their original supply chains, and the idea of u200bu200bswitching from foreign trade to domestic trade is germinated, which will inevitably intensify competition in the domestic trade market.　　 The growth rate of my country's domestic textile and apparel market in 2019 has slowed down compared with 2018. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles above designated size in 2019 was 1351.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 5.1 percentage points from 2018; the national online retail sales of clothing products year-on-year An increase of 15.4%, continuing to maintain a good double-digit growth level, but slowing down by 6.6 percentage points from the previous year. Superimposed on the epidemic factors and the pressure of some enterprises from exporting to domestic sales, the pressure on the domestic textile and apparel market may increase sharply.　　(3) Late-stage demand or recovery at this stage　　With the gradual relief of the domestic epidemic, the demand for textile production suppressed by the epidemic since the Spring Festival may appear concentrated in a certain period in the future, and stimulate cotton consumption to recover periodically. The situation of domestic and international epidemic changes requires close attention.　　[1] The price difference in the article is the difference between the price of middle yarn and the price of outer yarn. Article keywords: 　Cotton yarn spot