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Cotton yarn cost conduction poor, lack of momentum - even further Textile information - Textile net - Textile integrated service provider
First, look at the latest forecast data. In April the USDA report monthly supply and demand, the global cotton production, April 9. 10000 tons to 2172. Output of 90000 tons, of which India for 583. 50000 tons, remains the world's first cotton producer; Global consumption increase 8. 20000 tons to 23. 86 million tons, of which China's consumption increased 10. 90000 tons; Ending inventory to reduce global 24. 50000 tons to 2225. 50000 tons. In addition, China's production and imports to maintain last month forecast, consumption rises 10. Cut 10 90000 tons and ending inventory. 90000 tons, the ending inventory to reduce all come from the rise in consumption; China's new annual production of 518. 707, 20000 tons of consumption. 60000 tons, the production shortfall for 189. 108 40000 tons, the removal of import. There are gap in 80 90000 tons. 50000 tons. Consumption increase 10 in Pakistan. The import of 90000 tons, leading to increase of 13. 10000 tons, the rest in various countries and various indicators have no obvious changes, the new annual global cotton supply still is loose, but has begun to inventory. The focus analysis under nearly two weeks of cotton market changes: first, the cotton before the start of this wave of market FangQi raw material inventory has been low, about 1 - inventories First 2 weeks, futures under capital boost up, cause the spot become relatively high demand, order upstream default rate increases, price increases sales, resulting in better traders sales profit, most traders reflect current 'style, not bargaining', smack of a seller's market gradually, the situation is still big bull market will only be seen a few years ago. Second, the futures, spot cotton price rise this week is about 100-300 yuan/ton, as the day before yesterday night session, several companies price 200 yuan/ton, xinjiang production and construction corps cotton sales price 500 yuan/ton, but downstream gauze is not obvious, the shipment price, higher inventory. Third, the recent FangQi processing profits also produces change, by prior losses into profit 300, recently back losses, mainly upstream cotton prices, lead to cost increase, but downstream yarn does not increase the price or cost of transmission failure. The price of yarns are greatly influenced by imported yarn, conduction is difficult, as the domestic spot price, the yarn is imported or renewed, there will be impact the domestic market. Fourth, the development and reform commission convene the relevant departments of the day before yesterday afternoon, in view of the recent domestic cotton futures prices rose to study the problem of abnormal, meeting 2015/16 of the annual national cotton reserves supply to guarantee the market demand, in the case of market needs, on the basis of the original 2 million tons on the can increase the quantity, also involves the discussion on the quota, previously not slide the policy of tax quota issue may according to the market situation of supply and demand to make an adjustment, market bulls for outside capital, could read the news of the National Development and Reform Commission. Fifth, we have learned, national cotton reserves selling price is carried out in accordance with the internal and external plate of price index of the weighted weekly pricing, the adjustment on Monday, at present as futures climbed, internal and external index weighted price rise has been more than the spot or, even though you have 600 - national cotton reserves 1400 yuan/ton of premium, but the price is relatively competitive advantage is abate, docking the goods less attractive. To sum up, in the near future as domestic cotton futures prices, spot cotton price increase - 200 600 yuan per ton, poor because of downstream yarn cost conduction not seen raising prices, combined with the market consumption season approaching, the late cotton, lack of further gains momentum.