Cotton city under the long-short game - 'dangerous and machine' Textile information - Textile net - Textile integrated service provider

Recently, the prices are spectacular with the commodity market, continuous 'diving', cotton is not exceptional also, when its basically stable, and the global spread of casts a shadow on the market. Afternoon how cotton prices, some people say that 'outbreak do not come loose, prices can't afford to. The author believed that the crisis of the broad masses of investors is a big positive, because only in such a major event, commodity prices, Including cotton) To appear so low, so don't panic. First zheng cotton prices tempted into CF2009 rush on contract price is 15000 yuan/ton, but the outbreak of 'care', cotton prices diving in a row, fell to its lowest 12650 yuan/ton, cotton prices less than two weeks or more than 2000 points, the market volatility than most people expected. At this time, some people panic positions, others have the opportunity to jump into the rare 'gold pit'. Is also a crisis, some flurried to safety, some bold to buy. In the same market, analyze the different results that the Angle. First, rightly or wrongly, careful observation of this rally has its reasonable place, there have been some foreign outbreak, the worst outbreak of South Korea, Japan, Italy have epidemic rise to the highest level, which means that the outbreak is caused by the government and the highest value. Domestic epidemic prevention and control has proved that as long as the government enough attention, and the most powerful prevention and control measures, the outbreak will be under control. There are also people who believe that because of the political system of cultural differences, foreign to to our country such a strong prevention and control measures. The author thinks that, in the face of a pivotal moment in the life and death, people's desire to life is consistent, not underestimate even doubt its prevention and control ability. Therefore, don't have to overstate the impact of the outbreak. , of course, this does an outbreak of the global negative impact to the cotton city, because dampened consumption will inevitably lead to price downward, dominated by supply and demand in the market price mechanism, supply and demand will inevitably to game, to produce a new equilibrium, the equilibrium will appear in the form of new price. Price stability, the formation of the new price by the market recognition, and can continue to shock adjustment until otherwise stable. Before the outbreak, CF2009 basic contract price fluctuations near 14000 yuan/ton, now is affected by the outbreak, the price has dropped to 13000 yuan/tons. Visible in the short term, cotton prices downward force, reaching a new equilibrium between supply and demand. But this kind of short balance can maintain how long? Before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the cotton price fluctuations near 16000 yuan/ton, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, when prices fall to 10080 yuan/ton lows, cotton prices fell nearly $6000 for nearly eight months of the time. Then prices return to 13000 yuan/ton for five months, Rose 3000 yuan) , back to the 16000 yuan/ton took nearly one year ( Rose 6000 yuan) 。 This suggests that the global economic crisis so serious before, cotton prices at the bottom of the time is limited. After the cotton prices fell in basic did not last, repeatedly rebound rise directly. Is, of course, on the one hand, governments cut interest rates policy, through the 'water' save the market; Is on the other hand, in view of the previous experience and regularity, prices return is a matter of time, don't worry too much about. Earlier people keep shout out to 11000 yuan/ton, cotton prices and be dead set of waiting for the bottom, but the market is not to give the opportunity, the reason is very simple, more it is the essence of both sides in the game. Once the masses formed on original low-priced goods fall consensus, markets tend toward the inverse kinematics, and tell us the truth is often in a few hands. In conclusion, the kinetic energy of the cotton prices have weakened, higher strength are enhanced, of course, in the short term are constrained by the demand, the price will be repeated shocks, but the author thinks that put cycle is long, the future prices.