Consumer demand to be released, beware of 'thunderstorms' closing stores (April 26-30, 2020)

1. Domestic yarn and cloth prices hit new lows. Futures prices rose slightly. This week, domestic yarn spot prices continued to decline and set new lows during the year, and the month-on-month decline increased. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S yarn index average price is 19065 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week, the yarn-cotton price difference is 7,649 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of cotton yarn futures settlement is 18636 Yuan/ton, up 15 Yuan/ton from last week, lower than the spot price of 429 Yuan/ton, and the price difference widened by 125 Yuan/ton compared with last week. The data shows that the average price of a more representative cotton grey cloth 63'40*40 133*72 stabilized for a week in mid-April, and there has been a slight decline for two consecutive weeks. The average price this week dropped by 0.01 yuan/meter to 8.18 yuan/meter. , A new low in 2020. 　　 2. International cotton yarn prices continue to fall and the decline has expanded to more than 100 yuan (1) 32 cotton yarns This week, the average pick-up price of Indian ports fell below the 20,000 yuan mark to 19,896 yuan/ton, compared with last week A decline of 128 yuan/ton, the price difference between China and India [1] [1] increased by 18 yuan/ton to -831 yuan/ton from last week; the average pick-up price of Vietnamese ports was 19,628 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton from last week, China and Vietnam The price difference narrowed by 8 yuan/ton from last week to -563 yuan/ton. 　　 (2) The average pick-up price of 21 cotton yarns at Indian ports this week was 19,094 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between China and India was lower than last week. Reduced 440 yuan / ton to -596 yuan / ton; the average pick-up price of Pakistani ports was 18,632 yuan / ton, down 126 yuan / ton from last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan was reduced by 422 yuan / ton to -134 yuan / ton from last week. 　　( 3. The average pick-up price of 10 yarns at Indian ports this week was 12,684 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan/ton from last week. The price gap between China and India narrowed by 75 yuan/ton to -579 yuan/ton from last week. 　　 Due to downstream demand Light, with the arrival of China’s 'May 1st' holiday, India and Pakistan’s cotton yarn exports have fallen, and prices may continue to be under pressure. 　　 3. The price decline of polyester staples has increased from the previous month. The price of sticky staples has remained stable for two consecutive weeks. The National Cotton Market Monitoring System Chemical Fiber Index , CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 5622 yuan/ton, down 414 yuan/ton from last week, cotton-polyester price gap widened by 406 yuan/ton to 5794 yuan/ton from last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose) The average price of staple fiber) is 8,600 yuan/ton, which has remained stable for two consecutive weeks. The price difference of cotton viscose has narrowed by 8 yuan/ton to 2816 yuan/ton from last week. 　　Fourth, outlook (1) The reduction of foreign yarn imports is limited to domestic yarn The thread market has a big impact 1. This year, China’s monthly imports of cotton yarns are comparable to those in the past two years. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s imports of cotton yarns in the first quarter of 2020 were 470,000 tons, down 2.1% year-on-year, and the import amount was 1112.1 Millions of US dollars, down 10.2% year-on-year. The monthly import quantity is the same as that of the past two years (see Table 1 for details). 　　 2. In April 2020, the price of Chinese yarns fell twice as much as foreign yarns. According to the National Cotton Market Monitoring System and China Cotton Net Data shows that from January to April 2020, domestic and foreign C32S cotton yarn prices have shown a downward trend, but domestic cotton yarn prices have fallen significantly more than external yarns. In April, the national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price fell by 1,000 compared with March. Above RMB Yuan, it is twice the decline of the outer yarn over the same period (see Table 2 for details). 　　 (2) The emergency response level is lowered to coincide with the 'May 1st Golden Week' 　　 Since 0:00 on April 30, Beijing and Tianjin The emergency response level of major public health emergencies in the three regions of Hebei has been adjusted from level one to level two; since midnight on May 2, the emergency response level of public health emergencies in Hubei Province has been adjusted from level one to level two.　　 After the emergency response level was lowered, people's travel demand for the 'May Day' increased accordingly. According to data from Qunar.com platform, within half an hour of the release of Beijing’s emergency response level news, Qunar’s air ticket search volume rose rapidly, and the number of bookings for air tickets departing from Beijing skyrocketed 15 times compared with the previous period. Search volume for other tourism products such as vacations and hotels. Also rose 3 times. On April 29, the number of people searching and booking 'May Day' Beijing local group tours, self-guided tours, self-driving tours with car rentals, and scenic spots tickets on the Ctrip platform reached the peak since April.　　 China’s only four provinces (municipalities) whose emergency response level is level 1 lowered the emergency response level to coincide with the 'May 1st Golden Week.' With the growth of consumer travel demand and the gradual return of life to normal, consumer demand suppressed by the epidemic is expected to continue to rise, or it will drive some textile and apparel consumption to a certain extent.　　 (3) Expressway charges are about to increase. Enterprise costs may increase. 　　 It is reported that the national toll road toll will be restored from 0:00 on May 6, 2020, and the transportation costs of textile companies will rise, and the increase in cost may support yarn prices to a certain extent.　　(4) Activating liquidity, beware of the 'thunderstorms' of closing stores　　 Recently, US Vice President Pence announced that 16 states in the United States have announced plans to restart their economies. With the release of consumer demand suppressed by the epidemic in China, and more and more countries unblocking and resuming work, foreign trade and the textile industry may gradually recover following the unblocking pace. However, in the context of the weak market environment and the undercurrents of Sino-US trade frictions, companies still need to operate cautiously, activate liquidity, and beware of 'thunderstorms' in closing stores.　　[1] The price difference in the article is the difference between the price of the middle yarn and the price of the outer yarn. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Yarn Textile Market