Can cotton prices take off successfully?

Recently, domestic cotton prices showed signs of rising. On the 24th, the quotations of 'Double 28' and 'Double 29' hand-picked cotton in Aksu, Xinjiang increased by 50-100 yuan/ton, respectively 15,800 yuan/ton and 16,100 yuan/ton. The prices of 3128 and 4128 real estate cottons in Shandong, Hebei and other places were 15,300 yuan/ton and 14,800 yuan/ton respectively. Although the prices were the same as last Friday, the manufacturers' preferential rates were slightly reduced. In addition, high-quality cotton increased significantly. On the 24th, a cotton merchant in Shandong's 'Double 30' Xinjiang hand-picked cotton offered 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week.　　According to the author's understanding, the market confidence of enterprises is increasing, and some manufacturers even think that this year's cotton prices will start from now and continue to rise in the later period. Is it true?　　 The market was bullish and the cotton price rebounded slightly. The reserve price of cotton wheels is raised. According to the 'Announcement on the National Reserve Cotton Rotation Relevant Arrangements' (2016 No. 9), the reserve cotton rotation reserve price calculation formula, this week rotation sales reserve price is 15007 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week’s price Tons, there is a steady trend. In addition, the recent cotton price has ushered in a low point, and the risk of replenishment is relatively small. Many textile companies use the off-season to replenish the inventory to keep the risk under control. A large number of new cotton will go on the market around mid-October. That is to say, there is still a period of time before the new cotton is released in large quantities.　　 The weather is very variable, and it is difficult to guarantee a bumper crop this year. It is understood that the Xinjiang cotton area is still hot and drier recently, drought is more serious, and insect pests in some areas are rampant. Cotton farmers have greater concerns about this year's yield and cotton quality. Recently, many cotton farmers in Aksu area believe that the yield this year may be 350-370 kg/mu, which is 30-40 kg/mu lower than the previous forecast. According to the weather forecast, the Yellow River Basin will soon usher in heavy waterlogging after the severe drought, and Hebei, Shandong and other places will usher in several heavy rains, which will pose a greater threat to the growth of cotton.　　 The market is still bearish factors, dragging down cotton prices. Last Friday (21st), Zheng Mian plummeted, among which Zheng Mian’s main CF1709 contract settlement price was 15,350 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton. In addition, the recent outflow of warehouse receipts is not optimistic, Zheng Mian's ups and downs, the market is still full of wait-and-see sentiment. In addition, the production of pure cotton yarn is in the off-season, and the cotton yarn market is said to be 'dead and alive' and 'golden nine silver ten.' difficult.　　 The above negative will still drag cotton prices upward. Therefore, the author expects that cotton prices may rise steadily in the near future, but the possibility of a big rise is unlikely, and the industry must respond with caution. Article Keywords: 　Cotton Price