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The cotton supply situation analysis - Textile information - Textile net - Textile integrated service provider

by:Chengyi     2020-07-11
Market at home and abroad is very delicate, new marketing bottlenecks, domestic cotton prices, cotton prices inside and outside the lakers, in this context, yongan futures co. , LTD. , general manager of headquarters of industrial development KuangBo from cotton supply situation, cotton supply and demand pattern was analyzed. The following points for refining: cotton supply side, 2010/11 - 2014/15 for five consecutive annual cotton, global cotton supply exceeds demand, and at the same time China's highest unlimited purchase, domestic cotton is given priority to with pay the storage, production for import is given priority to, make China inventories increased significantly. China's imports will be back to normal again, determine foreign cotton is positive; But due to the global level before the final inventory is still significantly higher than the normal times, so big prices don't have a condition. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, according to a survey of 2017 Chinese cotton ShiBo area 4757. 30000 Chinese acres, is expected to total 569. 80000 tons, the year-on-year increase in 11. 4%, among which the output is expected to 458 in xinjiang. 30000 tons, year-on-year growth of 13. 1%. In November 2017, since the middle of CF1801 contracts from backtracked to above 15200 yuan/ton, 14820 yuan/ton, near the spot slipped up, warehouse receipt and FangQi delay and cotton mills asymptotic make repayment period zheng period weakening, ICE short-term strong back above 71 cents/pound, and zheng period of weak form relatively bright contrast; According to the USDA statistics, as of November 9, 2017, the United States in 2017/18 cotton net export sales totaled 2. 14 million tons, year-on-year increase of 600000 tons, up by 39%, to complete the USDA forecast of 67%, higher than 2016/2017 over the same period twenty percent; But more surprising and ponder is 3 - in November 2017 9 signings at 11 upland cotton net exports. 60000 tons, the previous increases by 240%, the record for the year 2017, and the highest level since January 15, 2015. The situation is, 2015/16 - around the world 2017/18 for three consecutive years to inventory, but the final inventory is still far higher than normal; China go to the library to a close, the supply and demand gap will turn by imports make up; 2017 annual output increase, and the national cotton reserves round out the volume is big, many manufacturers inventory available to the end of December 2017, part of the available until 2-2018 In march, also some national cotton reserves of trader hand, market is not lack of cotton, FangQi without chase after go up enthusiasm; On the whole, cotton is still significant pressure; Support cost slightly strong, high quality cotton rised exist; Cotton cultivation earnings fell this year, next year's cotton enthusiasm may be thwarted. A global scale, the global economy overall positive, cotton consumption forecast preferences. Cotton supply and demand aspects, from pure cotton yarn in recent years the mainstream varieties of fine, 32 s / 40 s production changes, 32 s is contracting, gradually increase the patterns in 40 s. No signs of improvement, the textile clothing export situation is given priority to with stable, cotton export situation is stability. Domestic pure cotton yarn production is impacted by the import more apparent, because the downstream demand stabilization and presents on-off state. Import yarn is still the main factors influencing the domestic demand for cotton and cotton yarn, at the same time, the cotton yarn production is impacted by the import yarn is larger in recent years, rather than cotton fiber production, pure polyester yarn partial stability; Cotton yarn increases, the other haven't changed much. Both upstream and downstream cotton consumption demand weakened, fall back, ShangMian advice industry chain enterprise, FangQi, middlemen need ready to guard against risk, inventory tie up funds.
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