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According to the foreign, import enterprises, textile companies in China since July occurrence peak, middlemen adopts the 'fixed value' method signed ON July/August shipment Australian cotton, September/October shipment Brazil cotton enthusiasm obviously, 'ON - CALL 'point price contract sharply reduce, for September and October, domestic cotton supply preparation' period '. According to the analysis, on the one hand, no matter from the technical side, the weather has been recorded and the dollar index fell below the 95 mark, ICE cotton futures rising into the channel, the main contract breaking 68 cents and 70, 72, the probability of resistance; On the other hand because of the port bonded and prompt shipment 2016/17 American cotton 'length, strength index falling (' Later take than the big) ; India S - 6 is still in a state of 'not quality and price in Hollywood', is not affected by cotton import quotas within China has 1% tariff FangQi attention, and with a lot of Australian wool flowers for port and shipping (mid The fiber length is 1 And more than 5/32, the breaking strength of 30 GPT and above) , the buyer began to 'force'; In addition, since late June ICE continued in 66 - main contract 69 cents/pound of narrow space, fluctuations in SM - 1 Australian cotton CNF price has dropped to 84-5/32 84. 20 cents/lb ( Fold the general trade port of delivery price about 14400 yuan/ton, excluding 1% tariff quota transfer, lease price) 28, below the 'double/double 29' XinJiangMian this year - 2500 3000 yuan/ton. Recently, some foreign and institutional analysis in 2017/18 of the Chinese government to restart the policy of 'reserve' probability is bigger, and from high quality cotton supply and demand, the global planting area increased significantly and outside dish cotton prices, timely purchasing and 'three' high quality, no machine adopt American cotton, Australian cotton and Brazil cotton and cotton is a 'win-win-win' measures. The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance jointly issued the 'announcement about national national cotton reserves rotation related arrangement ( In 2016, no. 9) Clearly put forward 'to optimize the structure of national cotton reserves inventory quality, in the national cotton reserves a small round after round out the high quality cotton. Round into the time and set up during the listing of the crop, That year from September to February next year) 。 Round number, mainly according to the national cotton reserves from the previous year round out the actual situation and current cotton market supply and demand determine, in principle is no more than 30% on year round out the actual quantity of '( National cotton reserves digestion mainly according to the 'asymmetric rotation, first round out of the rear wheel, rounds out less wheel into the' principle of) 。 Therefore, the author thinks that in 2018, there's not much prospect of cotton import quota policy adjustment, At least there is no message) , start in advance by the government purchase and then round out after March 2018, meet the needs of enterprise of high quality cotton, so as to achieve the precise control. So why should purchase the cotton? A, the gap is too large (inside and outside the cotton spot Nearly 3000 yuan/ton) , which is unfavorable for the yarn, textile clothing export; Low price for purchasing outside of cotton and then thrown at relatively low prices, to FangQi cost reduction and competitiveness is critical; 2, American cotton, Australian cotton and Brazil cotton high-quality machine pick cotton sales had 'blossoming', countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, India mills 'savage', to 'singles go it alone' Chinese enterprises of cotton procurement opportunities is not much; Three, after three years national cotton reserves out of sales, quality is a bit good XinJiangMian have a large number of round out, resources drying up, if not timely collection and storage, 2018, 2019, rings out national cotton reserves are hard to motivate dealers bidding interest, 'to stock' hopeless; Four, central Asia after 2017/18 cotton exports will be drastically reduced or even no longer exports ( A huge increase in domestic demand, cotton yarn, grey cloth export dominated) , the Chinese enterprise and a cotton raw material channels to be blocked, forced to participate in the global competition for resources, it is a close call.