Cotton yarn and polyester price decided when to resume - market demand
Textile information -
Textile net -
Textile integrated service provider
With the development of Europe and the United States the outbreak, export of textile mill is turning to already crowded domestic market, lead to short-term price more competitive.
But good thing is, the current textile mill inventories are relatively normal, this is associated with for nearly two years before the trade dispute, inventory control of dimensions cotton is good, but if the order can't return, liquidity of the enterprise will have larger pressure.
Business inventories in China at the end of 2, 497.
260000 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year, but not enough to inventory of;
Industrial level inventory is lower than the same period last year;
As of March 31, zhengzhou cotton and forecast of the warehouse receipt of nearly 1. 66 million tons, the market well supplied.
In the case of supply is relatively stable, when recovery is the key to decide the market demand.
Statistically, Europe and the United States the outbreak is in rapid growth, while the main countries in the closed state, epidemic spreading probability have fallen sharply, but considering the social ideological differences, is expected to 5 - foreign outbreak
July back to normal, the generation of new orders is expected in the 5 -
June, considering the money factor and policy factor, at the bottom of the commodity, they would not rule out earlier than the time it spreads between brent month have obvious embodiment.
Chemical fiber industry and cotton price impact is bigger, between 2020 and 2021 is expected to the entire polyester capacity and TA capacity expansion plan or actual ground size is big.
By the end of the current, polyester production capacity of 58. 18 million tons, TA production capacity of 58. 22 million tons, and TA capacity there are still scale growth over the next two years.
Consumption growth in the whole fiber co. , LTD. , under the premise of polyester capacity expansion of alternative substantially cotton consumption is the existence of crowding out, this will affect the market in the next two years.
The cotton yarn and polyester price comparison at record highs, polyester filament inventories are at record highs, as of last weekend, the whole filament inventory in 110 days, higher than the same period in 2013 and 2014 highs before 103 days, the same yarn processing profits fell to its lowest level since 2016, short-term stock pressure, but vantage point is a staple of inventory relatively stable.
The cultivation of the crop.
Triennial target subsidy policy has been issued, the target price of 18600 yuan/ton to stabilize the xinjiang cotton planting area will be a good support.
But considering the zheng cotton September contract price is less than 11000 yuan/ton, means that the country's fiscal spending about $38 billion, in theory, price per rose 1000 yuan/ton, fiscal expenditure will be reduced, 5 billion yuan.
Mentioned in last week, the politburo standing committee, to strengthen macroscopic policy adjustment and implementation.
Now the United States have implemented a record stimulus and take similar action in Europe, Japan recently submitted about bill issuing interest-free loan subsidies, the overall still is given priority to with monetary policy stimulus.
Current market main include: basis traders, speculative funds.
Measured data show that negative speculative money to a certain extent, but there are still more capital to enter, have not outside basis trader is the price of passive receivers, and speculative funds is the market leader of the launch.
This paper, the current market demand is not very ideal, order returning may need three months or longer, the current market situation more emotional.
As the two meetings held in our country, the government's supporting policies of enterprises developed, market demand recovery after the stock price will be a bigger change.