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Cotton weekly | down to raw material industry chain inflection point - capital flight for epidemic diseases Textile information - Textile net - textile

by:Chengyi     2020-06-23
Since the outbreak of new crown, masks, protective clothing and other products demand, animating the whole article non-woven industry chain, the price of both raw materials and finished products before the outbreak has several times even more gains, interests, enterprise began to increase production capacity of the industry, and firms began to transition halt production outside the industry, the overall development of a trend of blowout. Compared with the non-woven industry, the cotton spinning industry can only be ashamed. Since mid-march, & other; Strong & throughout; Yarn could no longer bear the huge pressure, present & other; Bluff type & throughout; To fall. As of April 16th, the domestic C32S average closed at 19218 yuan/ton, 118 yuan/ton rose last week continue to fall. The early stage of the yarn price & other; Strong & throughout; Is mainly due to the outbreak, the vast majority of companies to return to work and production delay, enterprises of the yarn quotation is still the continuation of the level before the Spring Festival. This is not so much a survive the slump in the market, rather than delayed the process for the time being. When the cotton raw material cost is controlled in 13000 yuan/ton, a stagnant market with a high cost, so the yarn down delayed for at least 20 days. In April, the vast majority of the mill has started production, low cost of raw materials has the normal conduction to spinning field. According to many FangQi reaction, currently used most of the cotton yarn cost around 11000 yuan/ton, and the upstream raw material prices are gradually stabilizing, FangQi under the condition of raw material cost down, cut the product quotation is understandable. At the same time the downstream consumption & other again; Can't afford to steady lying & throughout; On, so the yarn price in this crowded press finally succumb, under the condition of open down mode. On the other hand, from the perspective of the boot load of cotton spinning industry chain, as of April 16, China yarn and fabric boot load index of 51 respectively. 6% and 50. 2%, have been more than half. While the inventory rose to 27. 1 days and 29. 2 days, which both are located in nearly three years high. Is huge capacity, is the product serious unsalable, the pressure for the enterprise to cans be imagined. Within the due to recent less than the single, single is extremely scarce, warehouse may at any time, many enterprises in order to send a inventory increase liquidity, price war intensified between enterprises. Compared with nearly half of the domestic machine and imported yarn is just coming into the total shutdown state. As of April 16, FCY Index C32S fold the renminbi spot price closed at 19938 yuan/ton, compared to the same period last week and fell 45 yuan/ton. Which began on March 25, India for 21 days. On April 15, prime minister, Mr Modi declared a national & other; The blockade & throughout; Will be extended to 3rd May, and part of the industry in the approval of the government can begin to return to work. According to the survey, in northern India in early April due to employee retention within the plant, the condition of the boot production individual mills, when India is still the most domestic shutdown state. The second week of April, uttar pradesh, gujarat and punjab region mills can be submitted to the government starts to apply for, a few mills to resume production, to resume production factory in 1 - the phone is switched on 5 into range, mainly production recently received a few orders. Some factories even though in the case of allowing starts, because the workers did not reach the designated position and no order has yet to resume production. Some factory feedback, after the completion of sale in domestic market and a small amount of export orders, if there is no more new orders, may ultimately choose to shut down again. From the macroscopic view, because the new epidemic broke out in January, will in the first quarter of 2020 GDP centralism manifests, international standard &poor's, a rating agency predicts that mainland China in the first quarter of 2020 GDP will shrink by 10%, compared to the contrast today 10:00 statistics, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 20. 6504 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, fell by 6. 8%, obviously is too pessimistic. But from another point of view, the current outbreak is a global event, will lead to the global slowdown, this kind of circumstance may macro will pay more attention to the livelihood of the people and jobs, rather than GDP, so GDP is likely to come down in the short term. But there are financial institutions that the crisis was triggered by the new outbreak, rather than financial systemic risk, such as 2008, once the outbreak under control, the market will regain confidence, appear even retaliatory rebound. In this context, since early January, cotton prices fell more than 20. 47%, cotton prices fell 6. 52%, due to the cotton yarn cotton prices down by conduction, thus a lag, the decline was less than cotton. From the point of historical prices, cotton is close to the lowest price, because of the growing cost of support, is expected to continue to fall. But late cotton price is really to say, after all, even if the outbreak inflection point soon, due to the recovery of the downstream consumption will take time, prices are still a long way. In view of this, many business owners are no longer comfortable to sell goods, many have moved on to other business: buying stocks, buying gold, fry futures & hellip; … According to introducing, this year a new outbreak of crown the black swan, we not only leave, in investment than other products, investment of one thousand, double money also is not just a dream.
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